Yanksfan

GFS coming in colder/snowier for next week's event. Without looking at snow maps it looks like a good hit.

Whatever happened to the old fashioned winters when I was a kid? It would start to turn colder by mid November and more or less stay that way into March minus the week long thaw in January. Damn climate change.

In a way you are. Last winters bust was in large part of a decoupling of the pattern. In other words the pattern that was presented to us did not behave like it normally would in past analog years. That's a big red flag for me. Could it be the changing climate? Perhaps. Already there is confusion with the winter forecasts starting to come out. Some are calling for a front end winter, while others are going backloaded. All I know is we are starting to see more weather extremes occurring. What do I think is going to happen for our area this upcoming winter season? Who knows. To me any plausible scenario is on the table from a 1995/96 redux to an all out torch. At this point we should just wait another month and hope things become much clearer by then.

Models probably underestimated the strength of the block. If only this were January.

Interestinging development. If we put all other weather drivers aside like the NAO and PNA, what ENSO state is more favorable for a productive winter in our area Modoki or Neutral? Reason being I often hear Mets and amateurs alike vouch for each if you want a cold/stormy pattern.

It wouldn't shock me if the upcoming Enso model forecasts show a weak west based Nino. Whatever's the case as usual our winter will hinge on the strength and position of the western ridge and if the elusive Greenland block shows up.

Here I am looking for any posted tidbits for the upcoming winter and its 95 freaking degrees in Newark. Unreal.

Congrats to you and your future wife. It would be fitting if a blizzard occurs on your wedding day.

Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though.

That's why last winter predictions busted so badly and is going to cause forecasting very challenging this winter.

I agree. With the Changing climate, pre June 1st named storms could very well become the norm. I can envision seeing the NHC start the season on May1st in the not so distant future.

Blizzard of 96 is #1 in my book. Snowed for 28 straight hours. Ended up with 30 inches in my home town of Bloomfield, N.J. at the time. Absolute heaven. The only storm that comes close is Boxing Day.

So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish.

October 30th.

When I first got into this weather hobby back in the day as a kid growing up, John Coleman was one of my favorite weathermen on TV. He was truly one of the greats. R.I.P. John.

I like to watch Lee Goldberg. To me he's the best weatherman on TV. When there's an impending storm, I'll also check out Nick Gregory. That's it. I won't even put on the weather channel anymore.

Wow. What a gut wrenching loss by the Yankees. One of the worst post season losses I've ever seen.

I'll never forget Al Roker's snowmap a couple of days before the "so called" event. He had the eastern half of jersey along with NYC metro and Long Island at 2-3 feet. Everywhere west of Morristown was 3-4 feet! I ended up with a few paltry inches. What a bust of a storm! Still irks me to this day.