Fozz

NAM is running now, probably coming back to reality.

I really hope this one buries those of you who were screwed in the March storm.

1 minute ago, cae said:

This is probably the last RGEM ensemble update for this storm.  It stuck with the same general idea, but now with more snow.

I figured out how to get probability plots for the whole storm rathern than just 24-hour chunks.  I have to plot total precipitation, not just qpf as snow.  I'm not going to show the 5mm plot, because at least 90% of ensemble members show everyone in this region getting at least 5mm of precip.  Even PSU.  Here's the 15 mm plot.

Not all of that will fall as snow.

Nice @usedtobe jackpot.

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup. All the central and upper eastern shore counties aren't either. The accumulation forecast for my yard has 6" on the upper end. If I get the 6, I don't think it would look any different if my county was shaded in pink on a map instead of purple.

I recall several nice events in which I've seen 5-6" from an event that only had an advisory. With some luck, this one could also join that list.

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It doesn't really matter if your area is in a warning or not. It wont change the outcome.

I know, which is why I said in the previous post that I don't really care that I'm not in one. 

20 minutes ago, T. August said:

Where my advisory gals and guys at. Can we make a support group

We'll be fine. We aren't getting 6-10"+ like the Virginia crowd, but this is still looking much better than it was a few days ago when I feared we may barely get an inch. It's going to be cold, everything will easily stick, and the long range is the best look I've seen since 2010.

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Fringed

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually get the warning too. 

lol... I'm still not in a warning. But I don't even care. As Ron Paul would say, it's happening!

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

the FV3 at 204 hour  is sick

Even more incredible is the temps in the middle of it.... absolutely frigid...

4 hours ago, Fozz said:

I know it’s Maine, but still the totals on that run are astonishing. We just need to somehow bring that 48”+ zone down to MD and VA.

Enter the 12z FV3 GFS  

I don't know when the snow was expected to start for the western crowd @clskinsfan @EastCoast NPZ, but from my experience, an early start is a great sign. Enjoy this one!

6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

They updated their map at 11:21, then made significant changes at 11:56?

It's fine. They are likely very busy, taking in a lot of info very quickly for a pretty tough forecast, working on a Saturday after many weeks without pay and no end in sight, all over a dumb political impasse. I think they're doing a great job considering the circumstances they're in.

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Is that the FV3 snow map? It reminds me of that old DGEX run on 1/30/2010 that called for up to 48", and was almost spot on.

9 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Updated LWX snowfall total map

 

Hmmmm.... looks like they're hinting at expanding the warnings into Baltimore. Also it seems like barring a big north jump, @NorthArlington101 made the right move by driving to Charlottesville.

My bar is 4". Hoping for at least a decent, high-end advisory event. 

That vort passage is a thing of beauty. Just perfect to crush our area. I don't care if it's 8" or 20", this right here is an awesome look.

If this was 60+ hours away, I'd dismiss it immediately, but we're inside 36 hours and we have the NAM nuking most of us. I don't know what to make of this... it's one of the most stunning runs I've seen in ages.

Just now, Chris78 said:

Wow!!!!

And it's not even finished. Still coming down. Maybe that 8" SREF mean in NE MD isn't as crazy as I thought. Or the NAM is just being the NAM. But still.... 

Still coming down hard after sunset tomorrow evening, according to the NAM.

I would've never expected a deform band like this a few days ago.

NAM crushes Baltimore with heavy rates at noon tomorrow. 

5 minutes ago, Beachin said:

This is for Aberdeen Harford county. 
Look at the mean jump!!!!!

Forgive me if I'm reading that wrong, but is this calling for 8.5" in Aberdeen? That sounds crazier than the NAM.

1 minute ago, mattie g said:

So...congrats, Maine?

I know it’s Maine, but still the totals on that run are astonishing. We just need to somehow bring that 48”+ zone down to MD and VA.

GFS nukes northern Maine. I’ve never seen so much white on a snow map outside the mountains.

Looks like a great event is unfolding for DC, southern MD, and VA. Enjoy this one you guys!

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Anyone have weather records for Jan 2, 1994? Trying to see if it snowed that day out here.  Wxunderground data only goes back to 2000.

Check out this site and see if there's a location near you with that data.

http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/