Fozz

10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’ll be in Canaan for New Years. So i can handle an inside track!

Just so long as it isn't a cutter. Hope you enjoy and hope it snows!

According to the fantasy run, temps also fall to the single digits the following night, with highs in the 20s for the next few days afterwards. It sure would make for a great period of deep winter to start 2019. 

It's nice to fantasize.

2003-04 was a pretty good winter, but very front-loaded. I don't like how we were completely shut out after January ended.

1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

Local ski season is getting off to a crappy start. Little opportunity for snowmaking this week with another coastal rainer coming just in time for the weekend. Looking at the long range there might be another rainer the weekend after christmas. C'mon man!

I'm thankful that my seasonal pass includes many places that are much further north.

If this winter gets cranking in early January, I'll be very thrilled.

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I wish we used the actual winter because our snow climo matches that way better. It would cut down on the yearly freak outs around Xmas when it doesn't snow if we didn't consider winter starting until late December. 

Lately, I agree. But in the 00s, we had a lot of good Decembers while March was usually unimpressive. Now it's the other way around.

18 hours ago, caviman2201 said:

 

One interesting thing that map doesn't show is Boston. 0.1" for the season so far. So we aren't alone...

12 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

you are dragging me towards the ledge. i will forever remember this mistake

I made a similar mistake years ago. January 2011, I stayed in college (UMD) and didn't go home before the storm. I didn't anticipate the vast difference in totals between the two locations. Long story short, College Park ended up with 4" of slop. At home it was 14", with a lot of thundersnow too. It's been almost 8 years, but I'm still not sure if I've completely gotten over it.

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

Snow is apparently quite a rarity here. So a near miss storm at any point is very disappointing. It was December 9th last year too. Remember how that turned out?

If you want to be a glass half empty guy, then have at it. 

Last year turned out alright in my backyard, and probably yours too.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

By that point I wouldn't even be following because I woulda jumped off the threat several days prior if there were even a HINT of suppression!

Ain't gonna ruin my birthday and Christmas...heck no! (but that scenario would be a gut punch that would be hard to ignore...so let's hope that doesn't happen! We don't deserve that! Lol)

In all seriousness though, I'm still very optimistic about this winter. A few near misses won't bother me too much. Even many of the good years (like 02-03 and 95-96) had quite a few impressive storms miss us to the south or fringe us.

I will laugh so hard if there's another southern slider like today's around Christmas.

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

KRIC recorded 11.4" in January 2016 and 10.0" on January 30, 2010. If this event surpasses that, it will be the biggest snowstorm since January 1996 when 12.0" was recorded. 

How much did they get in January 2000?

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Is this their biggest storm since 2/15/03?  I don’t recall them ever having a big one in 09-10 it felt they mixed in every one 

Jan 30, 2010 was a big one for Richmond. So was January 2016.

2 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

You can't make this stuff up. I feel bad for DC, truly. Cruelty beyond belief.

It's only December 9.

11 minutes ago, PWC Split said:

Brutal!

If I were in that position, then I would just hop in the car and go as far south as I can. Real life can wait till later.

5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Right. She’s sent me a LOT of happy snow picks for now a third year in a row. I am happy for her, but...still. Also kinda bit by some jealousy.

It sucks for sure, especially when it goes against the natural order of things. But sooner or later, the law of averages will catch up to them. I mean, they’re literally getting more than their entire average annual snowfall from one storm.

10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

My daughter lives there - I am not talking out of my ass - they’ve had two warning level events now the last two years that have dwarfed anything we’ve gotten. I know , because I am related to her and she sends pics and reports. You don’t always have to be contrarian.

My bad. I just realized I clicked on the wrong WFO and looked at the data for Greenville, SC instead. So, dumb mistake from me. 

EDIT: Looks like they had a 7" storm last January and 8" storm the year before. And now this one. Damn.

22 minutes ago, Disc said:

Over 7" here...

 

That's an amazing shot. Looks like at least 3"/hr rates.

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The Xmas to Jan 7th period will rock because I have to go to Disney World in Florida during then.  I'm going to miss the best period of this winter and we'll get clocked bigly up here.

I'll be out of town during Christmas week, and will be back right around New Year's Eve, so I think that period should have a good chance of a storm. I'm not even being paranoid, every single time in the past 20 years that our area had a white Christmas, I've been away. Just my luck 

Thankfully though, the December 2009 storm happened literally the day before I left. Otherwise I would've been devastated and heartbroken to miss out on it.

59 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

They have totally crushed our area for snowfall the last few years. Odd. 

That's actually not true. The last time GSP received double digit snowfall in a season was 1992-93. So this storm really is historic for them.

EDIT: I checked the wrong town.

If these shifts had been happening yesterday then I'd probably still have hope. 

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

3k has the IR deform band in place. Radar will catch up at 0z

With that look, you'd think the storm would at least reach Philly.

I've gotta say, this is really thrilling to watch, even though it probably won't go all January 2010 on us.

If anything, it shows that good north trends can happen, even if it isn't north enough for most of us this time. Hope it buries Richmond and Fredericksburg.

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Sounds easy to me 0-8". Boom

If you think that's nuts, then check this out. Right from Asheville.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
403 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...

.Cold high pressure along the East Coast will interact with a
moist low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico
through the weekend and into Monday. Moderate to heavy
precipitation will fall as a mixture of snow, sleet, and freezing
rain across the region this evening through Sunday, and gradually
tapering off Sunday night through Monday.

GAZ010-017-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-SCZ001>003-
081800-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181208T1700Z-181210T1700Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Faust, Mars Hill,
Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond,
Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton,
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee,
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands,
Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Saluda, Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville,
Gowensville, and Cleveland
403 AM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Most of the
  precipitation will be snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to
  18 inches are expected, with accumulations increasing from
  south to north and as elevation increases. Ice accumulations
  of around a tenth of an inch are also expected.

15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

As a Philadelphian the one recent now cast event that bumped N on the day of the event was the infamous Eagles - Lions snow game. That was supposed to be a DC event with flurries up here. 

Exactly 5 years ago to the day, if it's the event I think you're referring to. What a fun storm.

IIRC we were forecast 1-2" then zr, but a death band hit and many of us north of the cities ended up with 4-8". We had HECS-level snowfall rates for a little while.