Fozz

6 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

but you don't even know what you're getting

You're right, I don't know for sure, but most of the latest guidance does not favor my area for anything more than -SN from a fairly weak WAA. So my expectations are very low at this point. 

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

THIS

If you are upset over this... I don't know what to tell you

I don't think there's anything wrong in feeling a bit disappointed, especially for those of us getting under 2".

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So I mean...We haven't deviated much from the general 2-4" that been the forecast all week, right? If that is still the most likely solution, we oughta count anything else as a bonus!

If something similar to the latest GFS solution plays out, I think we'd be lucky to see 2".

39 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That model depiction is literally my forecast. You can even see the secondary enhancement over Parr’s Ridge

 

Nice! I'd sign up for that right away.

I'm expecting about 1-2" from this event, with probably more towards DC. Hopefully I'm too low, but it will seem tough to get a strong enough system to move into the ideal position for a significant event here.

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TWC going with 5" - 8" for DC.

 

Actually no. The 5-8" is only to label the lavender color. Looks like they put DC on the line between 1-3" and 3-5". Seems reasonable to me.

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX winter storm warning criteria is 5". I get that you aren't happy unless you get a foot or more, but at least be correct with warning criteria information. 

We both know 5 is not wsw in our counties:)

I didn't know you moved to one of these counties.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

that I did not know.  Thanks.  Thought it was 5 regardless. so 12hours or more is 7+?

Winter Storm Warning

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Storm Warning

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its 5

It's 5" for shorter duration events (12 hrs or less), which tend to be most of our storms. But for longer duration, it's 7"+.

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Most elongated and slowest moving upper level energy ever.

That piece of energy crashing into California is a real problem. Steals energy from the storm and turns it into a string out mess.

Just now, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12z

Mixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression

Exactly what I was thinking. I don't think either of us have much to worry about, or really anyone N/W of the cities. Probably not in the cities either.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Still snowing at 132.  Ok

Looks like it gives us snow showers through Monday afternoon. Would be very nice to see.

Nice improvement from 12z. Keep it going!

Very encouraging shift. Feeling much better about this now. Of course a moderate north bump would be nice, but I won't get too greedy on a storm that offers nice cold powder. 4-6" would be great.

Yeah I'm no longer expecting more than maybe 2-3". But that's fine. We have a great pattern coming up with many more opportunities on the way. Most normal winters (including the better ones) don't have a MECS right off the bat after a pattern change.

17 minutes ago, cae said:

From what I can tell, nobody knows the appropriate probability distribution for precipitation data.  It appears to vary by region.  The normal distribution isn't widely used because it allows for negative precipitation values and underestimates the probability of large totals.  The gamma distribution is widely used, but it too can underestimate the probability of extreme events. 

I did a Shapiro-Wilk test on the precip data through 2017, and it confirmed a normal distribution (or close enough to it). But with 2018 included, that was no longer the case.

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude I was just about to bring that up! In fact...ya know the last time a government shutdown stretched from December into January? 1995-96...lol

Not to mention October 2013...  

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

So Donald Trump shut down the government...broke the broken gfs even more and now its back to giving us big snowstorms in bad patterns.

It wouldn't be the first time a shutdown was followed by a great winter.

IIRC, the block in 09-10 was so strong that not only did the northeast miss out on a lot, northern New England was also pretty warm.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Week 4 is the best of the bunch

 

Week 5 might be too much blocking. lol

Oh man.... looks almost like something from 9 years before that date.

So either the south will steal our snow, or we'll see a few plowable events while New England gets multiple epic blizzards.

Or if the weeklies are correct then we get our best year since 2013-14.

FV3 GFS: psuhoffman gets fringed 

Probably the March snowstorm. But the big rain storms and the early March windstorm were also very impressive.

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Did the famed Carolina Crusher (Jan 25, 2000) do something up your way or was there another storm?

Yes, it was a huge storm here. Widespread 12-18” totals around DC and Baltimore.

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You had your snow already. It's time for you to experience 40 degree rain for a while. I dated a girl in NC years ago. Anything under 50 is "deep winter" to them anyways. 

Kidding aside your as far south of me as Boston is north of me. What we need isn't even remotely the same. It would be very difficult for me to get much from a big snowstorm for you and I doubt any of my top 10 storms were very good for you. 

I'll gladly take another January 2000.