Fozz

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Western loudoun is either/both higher elevation and less populated than eastern loudoun, so it makes sense they hedged with a warning there. 

It's also a saturday morning, so that's probably why they went with a WWA east loudoun even though they're forecasting for 3-5" locally up to 7" imby. Had it been a weekday, they would have gone with a warning. 

I don’t see this hitting warning levels in most spots, so the advisory makes sense. The 7” thing is a stretch IMO and probably mainly for the highest parts of Parrs ridge.

Nice to see warning level snow on the ICON

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Sounds like some bad luck is playing a part in this to be honest. No different than good luck playing a hand in me not having these same issues going out west to places like Bachelor, Alta, Breck, etc.

I've been pretty lucky too, even when I booked further in advance.

I remember 2021-22 was a crappy winter out west, but some time in January I had a feeling that the pattern would shift by early March, so that's when I booked my first ever ski trip out west and as soon as I arrived we had multiple powder days at Breck, Vail, and the whole front range. 

Then came MLK weekend in 2023 at Alta. Last winter you really couldn't go wrong with a trip to Alta at any time, since it just kept snowing constantly the whole season. Same with the Sierra.

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thank you for the app recommendation! Just downloaded it, and when I’m ready to use it I’ll pay

I think it comes with a free trial, and it's definitely worth checking out.

It was OpenSnow that helped me realize that Whistler's weather was just so much worse than I imagined - I didn't think it could rain in the alpine in mid-winter but that's what ended up happening with their pineapple express, and the app also showed me the great opportunity in the Sierras, didn't hype it too much but clearly showed that California will have a lot more storms than the Pacific NW once the trough sets up in the west. 

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Mostly as a personal note to myself- Maybe the smart thing to do is wait until mid-December to book any trip and see which ski areas are doing well.

Get the OpenSnow app... it costs some money at $30/year but it gives great forecasts and very detailed writeups on the weather patterns in the big ski areas, and shows how well each ski area is doing.

I think booking a trip a few weeks in advance is ideal... the main downside is that it costs more (especially airline tickets), but you have a better idea of the pattern and whether it's favorable for snow chances. 

If I'm going to travel all the way out west, I want the conditions and the weather to be worth it. So far every trip I've done has delivered.

21 minutes ago, snownut said:

(FYI referencing this reply: I work the parking crew at Mt Bachelor and was working the paid and RV parking area this morning ) 

Whistler has had a really rough year. (and the lower elevation resorts here too) 

I have been seeing a bunch of Canadian license plates coming here to ski/ snowboard. On my shift today several British Columbia plates and a couple in their sprinter van here for 3 days. I spoke with them and they were so happy to be somewhere with a good base and they lucked into a colder storm cycle. Powder day today!  Way more rain and ice than normal here but thankfully the storms are juiced up so when it does snow its a bunch.

 

I was hoping to go to Whistler, but since it rained so much, I chose Tahoe instead, and I was there from the first of the month until this past Sunday.

What a great move it was. Heavenly was not very impressive in terms of conditions (though the lake view was great), but Kirkwood was amazing, and at some point I’ll share the pics I took (in the winter pics thread). Kirkwood ended up with a total of 65” while I was out there, and this wasn’t the stereotypical Sierra cement, it was legit powder much like the Rockies. It was some of the best skiing I’ve ever enjoyed, not quite like Alta last year but close.

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a La Nina March. Maybe that'll give us a chance to move on early. I've got a trip out of the country in April so I can happily skip the cold rain, and be back in time for severe weather season.

Time to book a March trip to Whistler?

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Very similar to 12z ICON 

 

Maybe it’s just me, but whenever any I-70 north storm is advertised on the models, it seems like the real dividing line ends up being the M/D line 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just ended. 6” total. measured 2.5” on my pool deck around 7am and 3.5” just now. Current depth is 5.2”.  
 

That’s incredible

1.3” on the board

5 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

15 inches here in March 2018 2 part storm. Most snow otg at any point was 12-13. Tremendous event for so late in the season even for up here.

8.5" here, and I'm still yet to see anything close to that again IMBY.

20 minutes ago, Fozz said:

On the east edge of the band. Light snow with a coating.

Now it’s coming down for real. Still needs to stick better.

On the east edge of the band. Light snow with a coating.

3 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

He's off chasing the snow in Northern Massachusetts or something

lol… why that far north? He’s gonna get fringed if that’s where he is.

5 minutes ago, RockabilyJunior said:

I've seen this movie before. It's too warm and the flip won't happen. If it does happen nothing will stick. If it does stick it will only be on grassy surfaces. If by some miracle it even sticks a little on the roads, we aren't getting more than a very slushy inch anywhere. I hope I'm wrong ...

I saw the R and assumed you were RevWarReenactor

I have family in Dallas. Flight is booked.

Just now, nj2va said:

It wouldn’t surprise me if LWX expanded the Warnings to the northern counties.  I’ll never complain when LWX plays catch up.

Yeah and I also imagine the advisories could be expanded into DC. 

So far I've seen two events with exactly 4.4", and for all I know this could be the third. 

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

3z HRRR got rid of its 2z indigestion for DCA and came back to earth, more in line with other guidance.  Gotta love the run to run consistency ::hiccup::

It cracks me up how the 10:1 maps are the weenie maps this time while Kuchera is more realistic. 

I caught the tail end of the Super Bowl yesterday. It was a long day getting back from California, but great game. And congrats Taylor  

5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Putting this here…

last time I recall this much excitement over late model moves was ahead of 12/26/2010…

Nah, by game time the rug was already being pulled. Some of us were in denial of how badly we'd be fringed, but the writing was on the wall.

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

That's a huge jump south for this close in. I'll take it!

15 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

It’s great to have the RAP and HRRR both on our side, and the NAM is just so, so close!

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Someone is going to get hit pretty solidly tomorrow morning. My guess is elevation areas above 500’ will be the primary with NE MD in a good spot given the expected track of the 7H/85H lows on mesos. 
 

I feel FDK will get snow and it could be heavy for a short time, but too warm initially to be part of the major accumulations. Parrs Ridge down through MoCo could snag some accums as well, but I still like I-70 north with elevation to be the winners. 
 

This is a tricky storm for guidance due to the convective initiation and spatial resolve across the south. I’ve been peeking at this potential all week and figured we’d have a surprise in store somewhere. Didn’t think we’d be in the game, if I’m being completely honest. I thought NYC could luck into it. Maybe some of us can as well. Will be interesting to track. If only we were 2-3° colder leading in…

I haven’t paid much attention since I just returned yesterday from out west. I was feeling demoralized with the 12z runs, but if the trends are good and people are making Jan 2011 comparisons and elevations above 500’ are in the game, then this has my attention and I hope to see it trend a little colder 

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow. switch totally flipped 

Annnnnd here it is. Just in time for the VDay to PD period. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IMO, both the 2007 and 2014 Valentine's Day storms were decent. We could've been 35 and rain the entire time, but we got frozen.

Exactly. In the end I was content in 2007.

Also were you in Reisterstown in 2014? Apparently it was a borderline HECS there.