Fozz

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Go back and look. It was. We've been tracking good patterns 2 weeks away all winter.

The good pattern was always expected to get in place around mid month.

Yea a trackable storm appeared around the 5th but that was always a thread the needle situation. A possible MECS if it all went perfectly but not our main window.

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I recall for several days it actually DID look like we'd get some big snow out of it (like a foot or so), but as it got within the short range it looked "warmer" and like we might end up with rain.  But it was so darned cold, and it was very entrenched, that in the end it was quite the ice and sleet event...the globals were of course scouring the cold out way too fast.  I recall eastern MD got very severe icing out of that...the cold layer was shallower so they didn't get "saved" by sleet like we did a bit farther west

Yeah it looked like a potential 12-18” storm, until a few days out there was a huge north trend and even talk of us getting rain instead. The overall pattern was good, but not pristine.

So in the end, we got a wintry mix and the CAD did some great work for us.

4 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Lets rewind the clocks two weeks ago. We were tracking 2 moderate snowfalls. A brief reset period of warmth and then early Feb would be amazing.

I remember PSU saying he couldn't draw a better pattern if you gave him crayons.

Well here we are. Where is the pattern change? How has the can not been kicked?

LR tracking is garbage. We will be here 2 weeks from now and still looking out 2 weeks for this phantom pattern change that will never come.

Early Feb was never expected to be amazing. My goodness you’re such a weenie.

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

So in all seriousness, how is the pattern looking?  I am seeing solidly positive 2m temp anamolies for Feb 14 on the 6z GEFS and the same thing from the 00z EPS at the end of its run.  Are we still thinking this rolls into a better pattern for the second half of Feb or is it losing the progression altogether?  I know the weeklies were still looking pretty good as of yesterday. 

I think we’ll get a very good stretch but it won’t be another Feb 2010.

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I'm of the same opinion about 2006-07, and in fact it is actually one of the winters I've liked a lot despite the relative lack of snow.  Yeah, December 2006 sucked and January 2007 started off even worse.  But the latter part of January into early March (especially February!) turned colder with some snow and ice.  That sleetfest we got on Valentine's Day in February was oh-so-close to being a big event around here.  But damn, that month was COLD, we had at least some snow/ice pack for several weeks.

Yeah the Valentine storm could’ve been huge, but in the end it felt like a MECS even though it wasn’t. The shoveling was a huge pain.

12 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

I don't recall many comebacks (at least when I lived there in the 2010s) given what the area has gotten so far.  Don S will tell you the probabilities of reaching climo in NYC at this point.

2006-07 was an underrated winter here. On paper it wasn’t that great, but we had weeks of deep winter and bitter cold with a lot of sleet and a lot of light snow.

The first half was a horrible blowtorch but the second half was a lot of fun even if the numbers don’t show it.

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Winter is canceled again. FOREVER. 

I blame Taylor Swift

4 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Whoa!  That’s a HUGE difference in totals. I relied entirely on the validity of the stats compiled at this particular website:

https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/philadelphia/most-yearly-snow

Not sure where they got their numbers as they appear to be vastly inaccurate.   

Makes sense. A lot of those numbers are clearly way off. It's always a good idea to know where your data is coming from. That website doesn't seem to show a source for it.

NWS will always be far more trustworthy.

4 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

That’s a wild difference in 1914. I wonder why Philly received so much more snow 

They did not. His Philly data is definitely off.

7 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Fozz, 

Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities.  

Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore.  Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall.             

Philadelphia, PA: 

2010: 1.5 67.3    

1987: 1.2 28.2    

1969: 1.1 27.9    

1966:1.4 46.2 

1964: 1.1 27.5    

1914: 1.1 94.1   

1912: 1.4. 73.9 

365.1” (52.2”) 

 

Baltimore, MD:

2010: 1.5 58.1   

1987: 1.2 41.7  

1969: 1.1 23.3  

1966: 1.4 53.2  

1964: 1.1 42.9  

1914: 1.1 26.0  

1912: 1.4 27.8  

1906: 1.3 19.5

1905: 1.1 27.6  

 

320.1” (35.6”) 

Out of curiosity, where did you get your Philly data from?

I looked up the numbers and found much lower numbers for those two seasons which look a lot more believable.

1914: 34.2"

1912: 23.8"

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=phi

So the it seems the Lions are about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

ETA it's def over now

1 hour ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi everyone!  Thought I’d simply share some of the statistical research I’ve been conducting most recently…examining the correlation between El Niño and seasonal snowfall in the Eastern U.S.

Here’s the link to the post showing how each of the 5 selected Mid-Atlantic cities all saw a VERY significant decrease in seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño episodes.  
 

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1751700478864265580?s=20

On the flip side, a few of the largest snowstorms occurred during a strong El Niño season such as 2016 and 1983.  
 

In essence, strong El Niño seasons are generally boom or bust and highly reliant on a KU event to achieve the climatological average.   

Interesting stats.

I'm surprised Philly's mod Nino average (52.2") is a lot higher than Baltimore's (35.6"). I wonder which winters made the difference, because 2002-03 and 2009-10 both seemed very close.

1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Idk if I would call it flat-out rigged, but the NFL definitely wants certain outcomes. The Ravens are a small market and their super bowls draw low ratings, whereas with the Chiefs they’re guaranteed a huge ratings boost from Swifties. One of many reasons I stopped watching NFL years ago and only casually keep track.

That's what it's probably all about. It will be much more profitable if the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl, especially with Travis Kelce and the rumors of a proposal. My friends, my sister, and my sister's friends all agree. After all, it's a business.

The Ravens certainly could've done a lot better but some of the ref decisions seemed questionable. In any case, those tears in the end were really hard to watch.

16 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You can't stop Taylor Swift.

Lol.  Watching the Ravens today was like watching the Cowboys.

Yeah my opinion of her has gone down just a slight notch. I’m not a hater but I can’t help but wonder if this game was rigged.

What a disappointing evening

How soon until it delivers 8” in Tallahassee?

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest GEFS extended, best control run in forever....

[Ji] that’s not enough I want 50 this is supposed to be historic [/Ji]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It's not the h5 look that historically produces a KU. The 'super block' bs is hyperbole.

Do you think a big southern slider is in play (with more moderate snow for us like 1/30/2010), or was the 00z Euro out to lunch?

This whole look seems very suppressive to me.

8 hours ago, snowfan said:

There was 2 ft of snow on the ground 5 days ago.

 

Seems like Canaan has been very low maintenance lately. Probably not making enough snow during the good times. I tried looking at their snow reports during the cold period and the vast majority of their runs were closed, even while Timberline was like 90% open.

Most other hills even including the much less snowy Liberty and Whitetail don't have these bare patches in the middle of the trails. 

Based on the height anomaly maps, every wave is digging insanely far south so I think a Carolina crusher is more likely for the 6th. But of course you never know.

@ravensrule just imagine if the Ravens win the Super Bowl and then the following day we get a 12-18" storm

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I think the potential is there regardless. And not just for the 6th. February has a chance to be really special. 

It just seems so unreal. I always thought the Valentine to PD period would be our big one, and this pattern wouldn't even be ripe until mid-month. Now we're talking a potential MECS on Feb 6 with many more big storms possible down the road?

Last time I felt this way was December 2009.

So if this "super block" ends up just slightly weaker than currently advertised, then we could potentially have a KU storm around Feb 5-6?

Wow this is mind blowing. And it’s on the 14th year anniversary of you know what.

And it was right around the 10 day range when it started showing up on the models.

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Well it wasn’t Boxing Day because I had 17” just south of Norfolk while reading about Ji wanting to kick a puppy.
 

So maybe Jan 2011. I’ll look into that one

17" near Norfolk has to be close to an all time record. That's an incredible for being so far south.