ILSNOW

KLOT update (great writeup) https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

I buy

i am going 4-8 with less in McHenry county

What about the GFS v16 with about 5 for you, are u not buying it?

yes but the 18z GFS doubled your snowfall and the 18z GFSV16 stayed the same so nice trends for you if u ignore the NAM

yes i am a little confused as I am under an advisory for 2-5 but my forecast is for 2-4 tomorrow and and 4-7 tomorrow night

KLOT update great read https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1

the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better.

LOL all the the same for my backyard and all show more then 1-2 inches for u. The next time u r optimistic about a storm will be your first time. Enjoy your afternoon.

Question why are they outliers when u have the GFSv16,GEM, RGEM , UKMET and both NAMS pretty much in agreement? They could all be wrong but please back up your statement.

12z HRW WRF-ARW Destroys northern cook county that small orange dot representing 30 inches of snow

NAM 54 hrs

yep its over

Enjoy ALEK

KLOT aviation update A lull in the IFR visibility reducing snow for many areas, except in NW IN and near the lake, has occurred this morning in wake of a leading band overnight into the morning hours. There is a more organized band of snow associated with a secondary upper level jet stream will lead to an uptick in snow at least for a couple of hours this afternoon across the northern IL terminals. Expect ceilings, which have increased to MVFR or even low end VFR to dip back into MVFR or a lower MVFR then currently. Vis may drop back to 3/4SM in this snow with medium-high confidence. Snow rates of 3/4" to 1" per hour may be possible in this band of dry snow.

ukie is liking the same areas

0z GFSV16 24 hr snowfall. I call challenge on the 11 inches over cook county and totals thru 2/16

KLOT The main axis of snowfall amounts in the 2-4" range has shifted a bit north, focused more around the I-80/88 corridors with this update, with amounts lowered to for our southernmost counties to an inch or less. PoP trends for Saturday morning are a bit unclear, as we`ll begin losing the better jet support, resulting in an overall weakening to the already modest mid-level f-gen. This may allow lingering light snow near/south of I-80 to dwindle, before additional ascent from an incoming shortwave pushes across our northwestern locales. Have trimmed PoPs south and east of I-57 as a result, and left the categorical/definites going elsewhere.

silly 18z NAM still thinks that the snow will reach into IL on Monday I guess the GFS hasnt informed it yet!!!

klot aviation Snow is ongoing in a band across Iowa. This band will shift to the east and over the area this evening. Substantial dry air is in place ahead of this band, especially across northern Iowa and northern Illinois. It is plausible that snow/flurries begin as early as 00z, but more likely the accumulating snow will start a few hours later from south to north (1-2z MDW, 3z at ORD). Morning AMDAR soundings show that the dry air is not very strong initially, and should be overcome quickly if no additional dry air moves in, but our latest AMDAR soundings at MDW do show dry air is advecting in. Confidence on snow onset is therefore only medium but current thought is that we may need to push things back a bit if the dry air trends continue. Once snow begins, a prolonged light to moderate snow event will unfold tonight into Saturday over the area TAF sites. Confidence is fairly high in this event beginning over the southern part of the Chicago metro (favoring MDW) before ORD and possibly by several hours. This has the look of 1-2 SM snow for much of this event. Late tonight into Saturday morning, approximately 08Z-15Z, there are some signals for temporary sub 1SM visibility. Ceilings should lower through the MVFR category tonight and temporary IFR is probable Saturday, although when on Saturday morning is still too low of confidence to include at this distance in the TAF. Total accumulation of this dry and powdery snow is forecast at 2 to 3 inches at ORD and MDW by Saturday afternoon. If moderate rates are more frequent, namely at MDW, that could be exceeded.

9z Plumes mean for ORD thru 2-16 is 8.39

both 12z NAM and RGEM bringing decent snows again in the late sun/monday period lets see what the king (GFS) has to say.

12z NAM 2 to 3 inch event tomorrow 12z 3K NAM 2 to 3 with almost a 4 lollipop around cook county

plumes thru monday @ ORD 8.92