kat5hurricane

Go Big or Go Home. NYC 25.2 LGA 23.8 ISP 30.1 JFK 26.5 EWR 24.7

I don't even pay attention to the RGEM in advance of a big snowstorm, it always runs low

Well, it was fun while it lasted

Bro, the NAM has 4+ inches of QPF on the Jersey Shore. I honestly don't think I've seen that before for a snowstorm. Obviously overdone though, maybe?

Some of us might get our normal seasonal snow total in this one storm. That's where we're at with this potential

Everybody is smacked, shellacked, any other acked term you want to throw out there. The Nam continues to outnam itself every run. Wild stuff

I think this is locked in at this point so I don't know how important 0z is outside of some small adjustments here and there of the heaviest snow. Anything that happens now is noise basically, a big one is coming regardless.

I mean, lol when 12-24" pretty much areawide outside of far north and west is considered "safe" yet here we are.

The RGEM is usually too dry in these big storm scenarios, same with most of the globals. They don't generally pick up on the dynamics and banding as well as the short range, hi-res models.

The 3k nam is still 2 feet in some places

This happens all the time. The globals always come in dry leading up to big snowstorms, seen it happen many times. Time to focus more on the mesos now that we're almost 24 hours away. 12" seems like the floor for most of us considering how intense this system will be, of course there will be subsidence somewhere so some might get shafted but this is a big one for just about all of us.

2.5 inches of liquid on the NAM has me speechless, that HRRR run was wild as well. I have no doubt now that the Euro caves and brings in the higher totals, wouldn't be the first time the Euro was too dry leading right up to a big storm.

Woah, woke up to a Blizzard Warning!!! I don't remember the last one. I'm.going food shopping soon, it's going to be an absolute nightmare.

The Euro is an outlier but this is the reason why forecasters aren't jumping on the high end numbers quite yet because there's still time for this to trend east. It looks like a significant snow at the very least but I don't think a historic storm is a lock quite yet. I think 8-12+ is a good call right now

Sorry, I'm late to this but I just saw this and it brought back some great memories seeing you and some of the older posters doing play by play. It's really nice to see you back.