Nibor

Flurries lower manhattan.

It's a battle.

Did the yellow hurt you?

I think along and north of 84 could see some double digits. Wouldn’t be surprised if a few come in on Long Island.

Because we treat model runs like they’re Vietcong positions.

It could also be overdone. It's just something to watch.

This is from their discussion: Soundings depict a warm nose above H7 that if slightly undermodeled, could allow for more in the way of ice pellets, particularly for NYC and points south and west. This potential is currently not expected to impact snow accumulations, but will have to be monitored. I'm just flagging something that should give pause

I don't think anyone would argue against a decent snowfall before a change over. Some here, as is tradition, are looking at snow maps and not soundings setting themselves up for disappointment.

Even though it's been erratic it still shows a warm nose. The NAM for all its flaws scores well when mid levels can taint the precip. Could it be wrong? Sure, and I'm hoping it is but it'd be foolish not to take it into account.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=OKX-N0C-1-24-100-usa-rad Save for later

Bullish!

EWR: 5.2 JFK: 4.8 LGA: 6.8 MMU: 4.1 POU: 11.3 HPN: 7.6 Upton: 7.2 KNYC: Trace

It's still showing a substantial warm nose leading to sleet. Everyone should keep that in mind.

Not the warm nose. Sleetfest.