CPcantmeasuresnow

And then of course the 6Z NAM spits out this. No support from any other models with these outputs and yes Julian I'm sick of seeing Kuchera maps too but I just had to post it here. However the map does substantiate my doubling theory from earlier, except this wasn't suppose to happen until tonights 18Z. I've been back and forth with this storm so many times I'm getting dizzy. If I somehow get 10 inches out of this when all is said and done I'll be more than happy.

All you need is a couple of hours under one of those at 3-4 inches per hour bands and when it pivots out you're sitting with a decent snow fall, no matter what happens the rest of the storm. I hate getting suckered back in again but it does appear we are at least on the periphery of being back in the ballgame. At least until the next set of model runs.

I actually need that to slap me back into reality. I was beginning to think that 6z NAM Kuchera could verify.

I can't take this serious yet, at lest not the Kuchera totals of the 6Z NAM but wow, the changes on every model tonight are unreal. NYC overtook Boston on this run and I get over 20 inches in the HV. Can't wait until I wake up and can tell people on the weather forums about the dream I had.

12Z GFS a little west with the precip from 6Z. Ups Middletown totals from 0.2 to 0.4. Poughkeepsie from 0.0 to 0.2 6 more runs until game time. If the doubling continues on each run Middletown is at 25.6 inches by the 0Z runs on Friday night. Since Poughkeepsie went up from 0 to 0.2 that's theoretically up infinite %. Very tough there but lets just say the ceiling is infinite. Who needs meteorology when simple math will do.

It is funny how the longer we model watch the more we refer to them as living, breathing beings with their own personalities. Hopefully I won't live to see the day they actually are.

-3°, snow pack aiding in the cool down.

-3° my coldest of the season so far and unexpected. Waiting on the flurries, only two more days. At least some hope for a 4-6 event up here based on some of last nights models. I think the 12Z's should give us better clarity today as forky said yesterday. Of course these types always seem to change their minds at the last minute (for better or worse) so I'll expect the flurries and anything else will be a bonus.

Pretty much what forky said today.

12.8 inches so far this season, below average, but the saving grace is I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th. An ice encrusted 4-5 inch snow cover as of this morning and it's not going anywhere soon. Although if nothing materializes this weekend it may well be in jeopardy midweek, next week.

Liar

Most people would be very surprised of the averages in most Midwestern Cities. Minneapolis 51.2 Detroit 45.0 Inches Chicago 38.8 inches NYC 29.8 inches Indianapolis 25.5 inches Cincinnati 23.3 inches Kansas City 18.2 inches St. Louis 16.6 inches The big difference in the cities that get more like Chicago, Detroit and of course Minneapolis is it sticks around a lot longer than in NYC. Also as you alluded to it comes in much smaller doses in those cities. One foot snowfalls are pretty rare in all three as compared to NYC. I always use the stat Minneapolis has had only five 17 inch snowfalls or above since they've kept records since the 1880's. NYC has had seven 17 inch or greater storms in just the last 18 years.

Honestly this is just what I needed. A dose of reality from the 12Z GFS. I can now look away at least until tonight and pretty much know we are toast. Serenity now, serenity now.

I know, It's the NAM, it's out of its range, and it's the Kuchera. But it's not far off from EURO totals this morning. I just can't look away, even though I know in my heart it's fools gold.

There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone. Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it doubles. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories.

Would love the 6Z Euro Kuchera to verify but we know that isn't happening. At the same time I'd still be annoyed I get 20 inches while the jersey shore gets 40. Is there no end to this madness?

Can we get a close up shot of this for the northeast? I need something to get me through the day.

Yep, agree. Can only take solace in the snow cover I've had the last three weeks which still stands at a solid 4 inches today, and will probably still be at 4 inches, 6 max, by Sunday morning. I'll just browse pictures of the 27 inch storm last February 1-2.

Last night a bad night for our sub forum. All hope not lost but hanging by a thread. Just not our storm. Really never was consistently and doubting that changes. Tonight runs should be telling. Bronx warned us. Wish I listened before I got emotionally involved. Filing for divorce from this storm, whatever the hell stupid name they give it, tomorrow morning.

Hate to agree but I’m starting too. Not a great night. Tonight is make or break.

Well we all don’t live on the Jersey shore. Anyone north and west this is very shaky compared to last run. Western flank we had reduced to almost nothing and qpf cut down 40-50%. Plus this is the western outlier. Yes you detect bitterness, despair and jealousy.

It was a weak moment earlier today when I was looking for any EURO support.

What run ? Wasn’t impressed with the last one I saw. Specifically for the HV West of the Hudson.

Why am I already getting the feeling this supposed beast will be a no show again by tomorrow morning. Is it paranoia, or just preparing myself for the let down which odds favor? I swear if SNE gets buried by this and we're flurrying under filtered sunshine Saturday I'm done. No more heartache, I shouldn't be affected by winter weather to this degree. I was sure I was going to outgrow it by now.

25° light snow, looks much better on radar than it does in person.