CPcantmeasuresnow

Here in Orange County NY, I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th, I would guess you're about the same .

Heat back on in the house I've been out of touch for awhile. How do the latest NAVGEM and ICON look?

Should that come to fruition, where will you be celebrating tomorrow?

Doesn't sound like a horrible weekend. Heat went out in our house about 1:00, waiting on SOS (our Oil company) to see if they can fix today, dropped 5° in the house already. This could make for a fun weekend if they can't fix it. And through all that all I can still think of is this fickle storm. I really need mental help. We all do.

Since the beginning it's almost been a 24 hour cycle with this F'n storm. East one day, west the next, east the next, then west. At least tonight's 0Z's should be our day to go west again. Hopefully it won't be to late for most of us to get something fairly significant (4-6, 6-10). I'm holding to my 8 inch prediction for Eastern Orange County. I may go down in flames but so be it.

35 inches in Highland Mills my favorite storm of all time. I believe we were the jackpot area for that one in Orange County, the Monroe trained spotter came in with 34. There were places in the Catskills that were in the 40-50 inch range. I think Monticello recorded 38. Of course what made it extra special was most of New England getting rain the whole time. I still feel guilty for taking such pleasure in that to this very day.

A reasonable call. I would add 3 inches to all of them and that would be my call. I guess I'm just the eternal optimist.

So what are you saying? The 6Z NAM Kuchera map showing 30-40 inches in the city and 18-24 through Eastern Orange County and Dutchess was wrong? I'm trying to downplay my expectations now. 29° and light snow with no accumulations. Kind of what tomorrow morning could look like. My expectations haven't changed that much. I do expect 6-8 inches where I am in Eastern Orange County and 10 would be a great victory. Any less would be disappointing but certainly not a surprise, and anything above 10 a gift from the snow gods.

It's showed up on enough different models on several different runs so it is a concern. especially for those of us to the N&W.

And then of course the 6Z NAM spits out this. No support from any other models with these outputs and yes Julian I'm sick of seeing Kuchera maps too but I just had to post it here. However the map does substantiate my doubling theory from earlier, except this wasn't suppose to happen until tonights 18Z. I've been back and forth with this storm so many times I'm getting dizzy. If I somehow get 10 inches out of this when all is said and done I'll be more than happy.

All you need is a couple of hours under one of those at 3-4 inches per hour bands and when it pivots out you're sitting with a decent snow fall, no matter what happens the rest of the storm. I hate getting suckered back in again but it does appear we are at least on the periphery of being back in the ballgame. At least until the next set of model runs.

I actually need that to slap me back into reality. I was beginning to think that 6z NAM Kuchera could verify.

I can't take this serious yet, at lest not the Kuchera totals of the 6Z NAM but wow, the changes on every model tonight are unreal. NYC overtook Boston on this run and I get over 20 inches in the HV. Can't wait until I wake up and can tell people on the weather forums about the dream I had.

12Z GFS a little west with the precip from 6Z. Ups Middletown totals from 0.2 to 0.4. Poughkeepsie from 0.0 to 0.2 6 more runs until game time. If the doubling continues on each run Middletown is at 25.6 inches by the 0Z runs on Friday night. Since Poughkeepsie went up from 0 to 0.2 that's theoretically up infinite %. Very tough there but lets just say the ceiling is infinite. Who needs meteorology when simple math will do.

It is funny how the longer we model watch the more we refer to them as living, breathing beings with their own personalities. Hopefully I won't live to see the day they actually are.

-3°, snow pack aiding in the cool down.

-3° my coldest of the season so far and unexpected. Waiting on the flurries, only two more days. At least some hope for a 4-6 event up here based on some of last nights models. I think the 12Z's should give us better clarity today as forky said yesterday. Of course these types always seem to change their minds at the last minute (for better or worse) so I'll expect the flurries and anything else will be a bonus.

Pretty much what forky said today.

12.8 inches so far this season, below average, but the saving grace is I've had a solid snow cover since January 7th. An ice encrusted 4-5 inch snow cover as of this morning and it's not going anywhere soon. Although if nothing materializes this weekend it may well be in jeopardy midweek, next week.

Liar

Most people would be very surprised of the averages in most Midwestern Cities. Minneapolis 51.2 Detroit 45.0 Inches Chicago 38.8 inches NYC 29.8 inches Indianapolis 25.5 inches Cincinnati 23.3 inches Kansas City 18.2 inches St. Louis 16.6 inches The big difference in the cities that get more like Chicago, Detroit and of course Minneapolis is it sticks around a lot longer than in NYC. Also as you alluded to it comes in much smaller doses in those cities. One foot snowfalls are pretty rare in all three as compared to NYC. I always use the stat Minneapolis has had only five 17 inch snowfalls or above since they've kept records since the 1880's. NYC has had seven 17 inch or greater storms in just the last 18 years.

Honestly this is just what I needed. A dose of reality from the 12Z GFS. I can now look away at least until tonight and pretty much know we are toast. Serenity now, serenity now.

I know, It's the NAM, it's out of its range, and it's the Kuchera. But it's not far off from EURO totals this morning. I just can't look away, even though I know in my heart it's fools gold.

There's been 7 storms in the last 18 years of 17.4 inches or greater in NYC alone. Draw a circle 40 miles outside the city limits and it doubles. If people aren't use to big storms by now they either haven't lived here long, or they are not paying attention, or they just have short memories.

Would love the 6Z Euro Kuchera to verify but we know that isn't happening. At the same time I'd still be annoyed I get 20 inches while the jersey shore gets 40. Is there no end to this madness?