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HVSnowLover

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Everything posted by HVSnowLover

  1. HVSnowLover
    Agree about getting caught in between max QPF. Right now the southern section of the max QPF looks to reach central NJ and possibly up to LI/NYC but it's something to keep an eye on. Will also be dependent on track especially track of the mid level low.
  2. HVSnowLover
    We’ve definitely been burned by the late nw trend so while I’m leaning jackpot near I95 I’m not commiting that we are done with trends
  3. HVSnowLover
    The models are most likely wrong with how far inland they are pushing the 32 surface line but I could be wrong but I’d say it ends colder at the surface than modeled with strong dynamics and the low to the SE
  4. HVSnowLover
    It comes in waves but yes growing up what we have seen since 2018 is way more the norm than the nice stretch for the coast 2010-2018
  5. HVSnowLover
    Depends for where. Might be some legit concern about mixing issues Jersey coast, south shore, eastern LI (but those areas often mix)
  6. HVSnowLover
    Yea I’d say take snow out of the forecast north of NYC on Sunday
  7. HVSnowLover
    Ukmet is a miss to the south which i still think is our worst case scenario
  8. HVSnowLover
    I agree with you breaking down storm setup is better than model hugging. Won’t the light precip Sunday Night-Monday morning though warm up dewpoints hence less room for evaporational cooling?
  9. HVSnowLover
    Cmc takes forever but looks decent eventually
  10. HVSnowLover
    I think 10:1 snow maps are misleading but not sure?
  11. HVSnowLover
    Agree precip rates are not that intense which could be an issue especially if the warmer temps verify but I still think everyone in the sub forum gets 6+. This is similar to the December storm where models show somewhat different solutions but still all get out region to 6+
  12. HVSnowLover
    NAM is unreliable but Euro is also slow with the timing so I’m leaning that way for now.
  13. HVSnowLover
    I’ll predict under since I think bulk of the snow falls after midnight
  14. HVSnowLover
    Yea I was actually thinking this is the coldest airmass of the winter and we are worried about mixing with rain. In the past the worst case scenario with this type of storm would be a little sleet mixed in.
  15. HVSnowLover
    Agree I still say suppression is a bigger worry than mixing especially NYC and points NW. Temps start in the mid 20s so gonna be a lot of snow at least at the start as long as the good stuff can make it to our latitude
  16. HVSnowLover
    12z euro is a big run. Last two runs have both shown a slower storm and a warmer solution for the coast so we’ll see how consistent it is.
  17. HVSnowLover
    My early guess would be jackpot zone is somewhere between I95 and I84 as this is where the combination of cold enough and best dynamics may take place but it’s also very much subject to change
  18. HVSnowLover
    Still 6-12 inches for the city/LI with 1-2 feet for northern NJ.
  19. HVSnowLover
    Ukie warms the coast a bit like 12z Euro but still at least 10 inches or so area wide
  20. HVSnowLover
    Odd precip shield and will probably look different next run but for this run the metro area is jackpot central
  21. HVSnowLover
    Gfs looks great, cmc is a mess but still some snow
  22. HVSnowLover
    Hope we can cash in on the front end stuff because that would really enhance totals if all goes well and also offer some protection if the coastal fails
  23. HVSnowLover
    Why tonight? Rather see that within 72 hours.
  24. HVSnowLover
    GFS snows from Sunday afternoon to Tuesday but thats dependent on overrunning reaching us
  25. HVSnowLover
    Its 35 at NYC on that run at the height of the storm and even warmer on LI. There are going to mixing issues on that run hence the lower totals near the coast but again it's only one run.
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