vpbob21

The thing that is concerning to me regarding the GFS is that all the ensemble members are well east of the operational. Don't know what the operational run is seeing that the ensembles don't but at this point I have to think the operational will cave eventually. Hope I'm wrong!

UKMET came north a little bit as well.

Looks like European models vs. North American models on the 0z runs. Hopefully the GFS and CMC trend better on the 12z runs.

Don't give up yet ... we still have the UKMET on our side!

Some really impressive lakeshore flooding around western Lake Erie today. In my town the flooding is some of the worst I've ever seen. The weather is so bad even Cedar Point had to close. I can't imagine how bad this would have been if this had happened last year when the lake levels were higher.

Got nothing here from the main system (all rain) but the squalls this evening gave us .3"

Picked up 3.5" here. Nice little refresher snow. Hopefully can squeeze out a few more tenths before it moves out this evening.

Got around 8" here. Not a bad storm but when nearly every model is showing double digit amounts less than 24 hours out, you can't help but be a little disappointed. Just couldn't avoid the dry slot. Seemed like every time snow started to really stack, another dry slot would move in.

0z GFS with another bump NW. I'm starting to really like where I'm sitting. Hopefully the rest of the 0z runs trend well.

Since we're piling on to CLE tonight, I have to laugh at how they use the wording "snow showers" rather than just "snow" in their zone forecast. Man that's one helluva snow shower. Ever see a snow shower that took in four or five entire states?

18z GFS looks like it bumped slightly NW.

I have to think once BGM and ALY pulled the trigger on watches, the donut hole was so glaring they felt they had to put out a headline. Pretty typical of them, being reactive rather than proactive with headlines.

Yeah I thought about that but didn't want to be the one to say it

Interesting, CLE electing not to go with a WSW, even with CWA's both upstream and downstream going with watches. That tells me they think this is going to be an advisory level event. Seems pretty conservative to me. I have to think at least from I-71 east a watch would be justified.

18" right on top of my location? Easy toss.

Picked up about 1.2" here, nearly all falling in about 45 minutes. Models nailed this one.

The second part of this system is delivering. CLE had to issue a WWA for another row of counties north. Picked up about 3" here since about 2:00, on top of the 1.8" overnight now approaching 5". Still coming down at probably .5"/hr.

Just shy of 7" here. Nice overperformer. Hopefully we can keep the hot hand for the rest of the season.

Picked up almost 7" here. That takes my total for the season above 17". Last year I didn't reach 17" until February 12.

I would take 2-3" and be happy with it. Unfortunately I suspect that is way overdone.

Obviously not as good as the NAM but I thought the 0z GFS improved over the 18z. The trough looks like it goes more negative tilt and the heavy snow gets back into the I-77 corridor. Need a few more bumps west but hopefully we can reel this one in.

Wow, didn't see that coming. The NAM runs had been awful up until that one.

I have to laugh at Ohio finally getting one decent storm and all of a sudden it's like we're the snowiest place on earth. And it's not like that storm crushed the whole state - I don't have a snowfall map but I would guess at least half the state got less than 4 inches. I did alright with 7.5" but most of the big totals were in the snow belt where they expect to be buried. The last 3 or 4 winters have been brutal for snow in this area. CLE's snow the last 2 winters combined is close to what 1 normal winter should bring. In spite of the 10" in the 12/1 storm CLE is barely above normal for the season and will probably be below by Christmas Eve. And it's far from certain that the Christmas Eve system produces in Ohio. I would love for the entire subforum to have a good winter, but if most of the action passes through Ohio, I won't feel a bit guilty.

Right around 7" here. Better than I expected.

Yeah I think Bellefontaine would be a great place to be in this setup. I think that area was the jackpot zone when Sandy came through here a few years ago.