PivotPoint

I like where things are heading. Move gfs through time and the higher latitudes start to look in our favor. Combine that with a PNA that goes positive and a favorable Atlantic, I’ll take our chances late Jan-feb to score 1-2 solid events

The problem with “searching” for changes beyond day 10, is that stable features always degrade quicker on models than what happens in reality. There’s a unrealistic expectation that any model can predict even macro level pattern evolutions. Never has been done. So my thoughts are a super strong WPAC ridge has to have an equally strong counter influence at some point to change its reload pattern. Which generally speaking is trough west coast/ridge east coast. That general look will not change until that ridge stops reloading imo

Yes, we can hope

Not sure I see that signal. -AO perhaps but no mechanism to bring that cold to EC. WPAC ridge remains strong on this

Trough in the west shows persistencey across most guidance. I saw this west coast trough and western pacific ridge early on in October and later in November. Thought to myself “that’s not a good direction”. Funny how these features can be hard to get rid of. Just like NAO blocking. Big pieces don’t always move so easily. Definitely thinking below avg snow fall this winter with avg to moderately above avg temps. Hoping we can pull off a couple -AO periods with PAC Jet settling down long enough to allow decent spacing for something to pop late January. Happy New Year

Any update on Stowe or Jay by chance would be greatly appreciated. Have they been mostly snow or are the getting the mix bag? Was thinking of making the hike up from VA but wanted to check with the local knowledge first. Thinking the upslope looks palatable perhaps through Thursday. Thanks guys... congrats on the snow (or frozen, at least)

Medium heavies lined up to my NW here in Clarendon. Might get another .5” lol By the NAM called this. Don’t care anyone says Banding, qpf, etc. was jumpy but it saw the potential first and I watched every single model run

Just over 11” on my parking roof in Arlington (Clarendon) What an incredible storm. Over 31 hours of continuous snowfall with a few very brief lulls oh, and it’s snowing again lol. Legit rates as the snow to the NW pivots through. What a day

Heaviest rates yet here in Arlington. ULL love. You can see the small wave like bands pushing from the southeast

This band means business. Roads caving again

Band about to pivot through Arlington/dc Hopefully this one means a little business

That is a good beer for deform action. Denseeee

These bands are kind of breaking up before they hit Arlington. We’ve kinda in this pseudo snow hole all day where nothing hard charges through with out deintensifying a bit. Hopefully that trend changes

Yellow blob just south of dc is about to crush. 1-2” hour rate band. Bring it baby!!

Steady moderate snow. Good times

Heavies lining up to the southwest. Gonna be definitely 1-2” more inches next 6-8 hours

Woah... great pic chill!!!

Dumping again in Clarendon biggest flakes of the storm. Great storm

Light snow and lower vis back in Arlington eta: check that moderate snow and medium sized flakes. Looks like good ratio stuff

Depends on where youre at. People always get nervous during this time. It will and currently is back building. Fun starts back up in next 30-45 mins for Arlington and I bet we pull 2” more. You gotta understand the ull has to transfer and consolidate the energy again. Plenty of left over water vapor to our northwest that will get pulled tighter as the ull spins up. And you see the radar fill back in pretty soon

You can see circulation around cho starting to spin. Back building will commence @Ji next 2 hours. Prob light for leesburg but you could pull another 1-2” man. Maybe 2-3” dc/Arlington crew

I know the nam was out on a limb but given the icon and had euro bumped I definitely think it could of picked up on a trend. Looks like possibly 6-10” here in Arlington. light dusting and light snow falling. Parking deck of my condo has cars covered

Euro going big!!! Kuchera honing in on a foot in Fairfax. Enjoy everyone. What a trend up till game time. Pretty sweet

8-12 creeping into Fairfax. Biggest run of Nam’s Life happen in 3 hours lol

Cmc doesn’t quite have that conveyor belt of moisture feed between during the period when the hand over of the low starts taking place at the coast like you see on the 12k. But I see the cmc trying to setup similar banding structure as the nam. Wasn’t a full move by any means towards nam