NCSNOW

If ever we need a wx thread to bust,let's hope this is the one. We've all been taking a deep breath with the steering pattern that's setup shop over the SE coast during peak Hurricane Season. As it stands now Florence is being forecasted to do the unthinkable after getting so far north out in the Atlantic and make an unprecedented b-line right into the SE coast. Every model is showing a Carolina Coastal hit as of right now. The things to keep and eye on are the intensity, landfall point obviously and forward speed as well as motion after landfall. Does it drag stall like Floyd or is it on afterburners like Hugo and Hazel. This has potential to affect alot of inland communities more so than just the normal coastal plain swipe, we often see with northerly moving storms that landfall on our coast. 

Someone needs to start a Florence thread. 

That ridge isnt gonna allow her to curve in time. If any trend that's available and can help Carolina coast it's a more SW trend. Of course our gain will be our neighbors to the south lost. Hate seeing Ridges set up like they have the past 7 plus days and beyond anytime of the year. But espeacilly during the peak of Hurricane season. Worst fears from late last week on the long range model forecast are appearing to  come to fruition.  Complaining about heat and high dew points is about to become the least of our worries.

7 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

The 591-594 dm death ridge holding strong thru day 10 on the latest Euro runs.

Gotta love it.

Looking everyday,longing for the next pattern shift lol. Hate when summer tries to hang around past labor day. Hate summer period.

Let's hope all the day 10 plus tropical fantasy noise, is just that. Or that ridge will spell trouble day 10 to 15, if it holds that long.

Landslide in Watauga County. 2 fatalities. Near Boone. Watauga Democrat is local paper if u want to see pics etc.

Moderate snow at 11:00 here in GSO. Hardest and biggest flakes Ive seen so far today.

Still snowing decent here at GSO airport. Sticking to everything but the roads. Trees look awesome.

Stick another feather in the overperformer headpiece as far as I'm concerned. I can't remember an event this winter , where its underperformed here locally compared to what models forecast where spitting out in advance. Hopefully Sunday we can knockout one more paste bomb to close out the season. Hard to beleive this is the 3rd time weve seen snow this March.

Sticking to my guns northern mtns see 12+ lollipops. Also beleive the big lollipop winners outside of mtns will be somewhere writhing 50 miles north or south of the NC / VA  state line from the foothills out into the coastal plain. Depends on exact track, but a deepening sub 980 l.p. riding our coastline will crank some rates no doubt. 2m will be an issue, but rates is what will give accums outside mtns.

Ukie bombs the storm out.

980mb and deepening, sitting between Duck and EC nice and snug

To much of a press , confluence up north for this to roll through southern KY, WVA imo. Well see

My worthless 2 cents from the mtn thread.

  10 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I'm feeling good about the model guidance right now, even though a spread exists. Blacksburg has a decent disco on the event and they aren't buying the gfs solution. Interesting note...they think the strength of the storm modeled by the gfs may be correct though. Now that would certainly be a dumping of snow for our area. 

Agree. The GFS would have to score a major coup over the higher res Euro,ICON, way better performing UKIE, and Nam. Anything can happen, but the gfs being right verse the above is highly unlikely.

Today will be the day of reckoning, definitely by 0z tonight. All the pieces to the puzzle will be well sampled and loaded in. I anticipate that at some point,most likely 0z tonight hopefully right after Duke beats unc, the gfs will fall in line, adjust. 

Some more big model hits at 0z tonight. Can't discern ukie to well yet, Acc tourney. ICON will make alot of folks happy. We should be getting more definitive , cohesive forecast for our backyards by tommorow night.

Lawrdy Lawrdy at the 18z Nam: W/S and Gboro 9+.

19 minutes ago, griteater said:

GEFS trend loop.  Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed.  Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west.  TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south.  Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold.

 

You think we can avoid a coastal transfer? Be nice if it just drop down and deepen as it rolls across Dixie ots

0z ukmet has a 994 sitting 20 miles off Atlantic Beach in 100 hours. 

Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column.

1 hour ago, POWERSTROKE said:

yes sir I remember it well.  Was 21 years old plowing on a tractor with no cab LOL.  Came a long way since then

Amazing how time flies as I keep counting the B-Days. Seems like yesterday in my mind along with alot of other things. Cant imagine our wx boards during a superstorm1993 or Carolina crusher event. Heck even all those late 90's cat 3 LFs on our coast.

Anyway we need some more wiggling and luck outside mtns in NC, buts its just as doable as it is undoable. next 2 to 3 (12hr) model cycles will be telling. Maybe we can all get one more bump from winter before the sweat season locks in for 6 months.

SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be?  

Heres the UKIE. well see where it all stands at in 24hrs:

9 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Do have any of the precip maps for the 12z UKMET?

Their juicy no doubt:

Heres the GFS at 12z. futher north than ukmet. Its posted in mtn thread. You want ULL to go underneath you. Obviously UKMET is prefered track and we need it a little nudge futher south. But its wrapped up no doubt.

8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

If the UKMET was about 75 miles south, whoa.

 

Yep it wouldn't take much over the next few days. Even a closer call big frosty. I'm begging to think the mtns at the least have the potential to have their biggest storm of the season. Espeacilly northern mtn counties. See if the euro can get on board here in a few.

OZ Canadian is throwing a rope at 138 and trying to lasso several folks back in for one last chase. 

Pretty heavy frost this morning.