NCSNOW

12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It is near zero right now, supposed to dip really negative around the 18th

Thats a big pac ridge going up latter this week into next week. It will have the snowguns turned on up at the slopes next Sunday. If we get the nao to dip a few days latter then the mtns could be in for a few treats at a minimum.  As Tyler already posted eps showing some higher than normal probability chances in 9 to 10 days. My foundest memory of 09-10 was the never ending tracking. Systems would come every 3 to 5 days and it was always boderline opportunities. Cashed in on more than we missed that winter.

12 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

12z euro ensembles throwing a big hint about a potential storm around the 14th/15th.

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The Pattern thats getting ready to set up supports it. Been advertised (pattern evolving) for a few days now. Getting inside of 10 days , so lets see, watch it get reeled in as the week unfolds.

Thanks to the pac (+pna) season kicks off early this year boys starting late next weekend into the following week. So much gets made out of watching the NAO, to me its always the pna going positive and anchoring in. Say it every winter, pick one tc you want on your side and for the SE for me its always the pna going positive on roids. Love the neg nao as much as anyone,but when you get a ridge bubbling up off western canada, the cold is coming gangbusters. Then you worry about timing issues with or without blocking. First step is always getting the cold air. 

33 minutes ago, jburns said:

We only live a few miles apart. Let's have some fun.  I'll take your numbers, move the decimal one place left for my snowfall forecast. At the end of the winter, we will see who ended up closest at each location. We can put up some kind of wager if you want. So there you have it. I am issuing the 1/10 challenge.

Your on, this will be fun. So well use the airport as the official metric in these towns. Greensboro Im at 21 inches total. Your 2.1 inches , Boone your 6.1 , etc.  Pressure is on my bold forecast. Its over double climo . But thats how I roll, go big or go home. Meals on the looser next spring. Im sure ill be waiting till the last frost falls mid April trying to squeeze out  every 100th of an inch I can lol. 

NCSNOW 2018/2019 SE Winter Forecast;

Didnt want to post this in the main thread for fear of increased traffic, site shutting down. But here goes for my neck of the woods. Really like the potential this year and will look back late March, early April and see how the eggs scrambled over the next 5 1/2 months.

Total snowfall 18/19:

Greensboro = 21

Mount Airy = 28

Raleigh = 11

Boone = 61

Beech Mountain = 120

Charlotte = 13

Simpsonville SC = 17

Athens GA = 10

Lot of Miller A potential and alot of mixed bag storms . Will see several East Coast Runners, Noreasters no doubt. Along with some heartbreaking cutoff line storms that leave the coastal plain brethern headbanging the wall.

Temps 18/19:

For met winter D,J,F  at piedmont Triad international airport in Greensboro. The season will average out -2.3 Below Normal.

Flakes flying good on sugar mtn summit cam and base cam

Cold ,very cold Rain. With wind to boot. High was at midnight today

GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS  / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1

9 minutes ago, scwxguy said:

Long time lurker here through a few years of following hurricanes and the winter tracking in this forum. In all this time I have to ask, why is it people are hoping for cold temperatures and snow? I moved to the south from the cold, snowy north in part to not have cold weather nor snow. Last year was my first year in Charleston and while the snow was an interesting experience I'd prefer not to see it again and stick to nice warm mild days. Of course cold spells will happen here, but I'm definitely in the camp of desiring warm and low humidity for winter. To me, after that winter "blast" of 3 days it was beautiful with 70s and 80s in Jan and Feb. I loved every day of it. I seem to be a minority on this forum. 

Just curious about the obsession with cold and snow where it doesn't belong! 

Cause most of us who have lived down here all our lives, expierence the polar opposite of what you expierenced living up north. 6 months out of the year of 90 degree days and dewpoints in the 65 to 75 range.  It wears you down quite honestly. Nothing like a few months of clean cold artic , canadian air. Besides the landscape is so much more atttractive when its white as oppossed to brown ground and dead oak tree leaves that constantly litter everything up. And the icing on the cake is no skeeters,gnats,flies or cutting the grass.

Im thinking that exact spot wow snapped those pictures from will be a winter wonderland Fri into Sat. This looks very promising  , espeacilly northern mtns 3500 to 4000 foot mark on up.

17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

He states the higher chances of ice. I would assume he's thinking strong CADs. This goes along with other forecast that try to use the 1995/96 & 2010/11 analog years. 

Of course I'm probably reading into this too much; but I would definitely place this into another positive winter forecast. 

Yea, i'd give more credence to the ice scenarios not so much because well experience more Miller B's verse Miller A storm tracks by a wider margin.  But mainly because the miller As even though more pronounceced/common verse usual climo, will be amped a lot more and screw up 850's while Cad  does it's thing at the surface.

Rays was almost spot on last year. Doe's a great job. I'd put all my marbles in JB,Robert,Rays and Grit. Think Allen throws one out there as well, before any and everyone else. 

Great Read!

33 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

 

This is close to something big. SLP tucked just off the coast and surface temps at 34 or 35 for most of us.

Yep NChailstorm has been following it for 2 days on the FV3. Not to mention several big time forecasters sniffing out a pattern that should be ripe late next week for a box office smash hit for the wx nerd world we all live in.  The pattern, teleconnections are screaming something big should evolve and now the new and soon to be gfs, is lending credence. Well have to see how this evolves, but chances are high a eastern seaboard headline wx story should take place last week of the month .

10 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. 

That was a good little read. Lot to look forward to where things stand now Oct 16. As the next 4-6 weeks unfold we should see the players lining up. Lets just hope the configuration ends up being in the right spots. Once the table is set, we can start passing around the entrees and eat. See if the new /soon to be GFS is onto something with this late month storm signal. Nice ice storm in the cad areas. But its not unusual to get some type of big wx event/storm on the eastern seaboard late October. Seems every 2-3 years now we are in a cycle that produces a news maker wx event.

First snow game of the season today. Broncos verse Rams. Just another sign winter isnt to far down the road.

Today may qualify as the first Cold Rain of the season. Gonna be a wet winter no doubt with weak el nino. Thanks to Florence and Michael already out of the gate warp speed. Sure Brick is gonna love all these cold drizzle days while we chase snow all winter lol.

The leafs are runing over 2 weeks behind schedule espeacilly in mtns. Ill be up next weekend, so hopefully the cool wx this week post Monday can flip the switch real quick. We usually hit peak Halloween day into the first week of November here. Think ours will be late as well. The Mtns should already be passing their peak mid October and like all of us green, thanks to the record long lasting warmth.

After 3 days and a few hours. I can report the metropoplis of Farmer NC has power now. 

Power still out from Asheboro all the way down old 49 in Randolph County. Cant beleive # of tress wrapped up in power lines. Old hwy 49 still closed. Waiting on power crews to kill lines so dot can remove trees from road. Gotta help folks throw out alot of groceries this afternoon but thankfully I have power at my house and can bring them in. Spent 7 day plus stretches without power on several occasions, all winter wx related. You can save food so much easier. But in summer or early fall its impossible without lots of ice, despite a day featuring highs in only the upper 60s with full sun. All ive heard non stop is people talk about they had no clue this was coming or supose to be this bad. Raleigh had our winds in the point click with highest gust,not sustained at 23mph as late as yesterday morning before they finally caved to the short range models and figured out the metorology of a unque situation. In fact Wednesday night point and cli k had winds only as high as 12 mph. 

SHORT RANGE MODELS, where as advertis3d. That event had some ump to it. Had enough with cane season and espeacilly summer. Feel the cooler air moving in now. Hate it for everyone across SE that has to deal with the after effects from Flo and now Michael. 

Lights out at my house. Ugh

52 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Real-Deal TS conditions here. These gusts must be above 50PMH...easily. 

Yep and heavy rain to boot. Looks surreal 

6 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

Got my Kestrel and ready here in CLT.....

My 3 weather stations (Uptown, South Charlotte and Steele Creek) in Charlotte: 2 Weather Flows and 1 Davis VP2

Here

Keep us posted. Center of circulation is just passing you by to the east through Union county. If its gonna be, then kickoff will start shortly. Feel like we are watching waiting for the solar eclipse again, waiting for this def band of winds to come charging in.

Side note: As crazy as our wx seems to be lately. Mediterranean has a cat 1 storm in it. Rare, but can happen

To add to it. Twc will be gold next half hour to hour and half. Can see things really ramp up right before commercial break. 

30 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

RDU is failing big time on this one IMO. After overhyping Florence, we're under hyping one of the strongest storms to ever hit the Gulf Coast that will be rocketing up through eastern NC. Unreal. Most people I work with have no clue what there in store for. 50-75mph winds is not joke. Florence barely reached 40MPH in Raleigh.

Ive been wanting to say this since yesterday. Made it a point to read point and click along with forecast discussion. My highest wind gust per rah nws should be 23mph. Wind gust. Thats this a.m discussion. Lot of dynamics and metorology at play here besides the decaying circulation and deciding whos on the rihgt side and whos on the left. Forward speed ,front interaction, turning extra tropical etc

Down to 931mb. Put in perspective Andrew was 922, Hugo & Hazel right in neighborhood of 928-934ish off top of my head.