NCSNOW

I fully believe these totals. The qpf will be there and is modeled by every model. qpf is the last thing we have to worry about with this one. Its all about the thermal profiles, surprising I know. So if you get a snow sounding, your gonna hit the lottery. Conventional wisdom tells all of us to shrug it off, to good to be true and I get that. But all you gotta do at your location is get the sounding and your Gold on this one.

I honestly cant recall ever getting buried so mnay times by so mnay models this consistent tracking a storm. Im not talking 6 too 10 inches, but siera nevada totals. Like someone is behind scenes screwing with the clown maps.

To early, but gotta start watching this ice part of the equation. That HP sitting where it is on GFS and knowing how it craps bed on 2m temps with cad is a little concerning. This is a juiced up system.  And im talking whole cad region down to lookout.

The snow will be insane cause I can smell the rain. Much improved GFS

Just now, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes, all in!

Good deal and encouraging. Thanks for sharing. Get Brick on board and well be ready to roll.

3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Yes seems to be slowly getting there! 

You heard any good news from our friend over in the foothils today?

17 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Still too warm but building a southern trend. Snow line is down to the N.C./VA line

Nice trends on icon today.

Done lost our coach today. Lets not loose the weekend bomb. Had a big snow about this same time last year. Mtns should get some more snow showers tomorow night as well. 

UKMET SNOWFALL: Just like FV3 for mtns. Wowza, probably has alot of ice getting thrown in for central NC, like the euro

over 24 inches. Let that sink in for a minute.

Just now, Wow said:

Snowing in W half of NC for nearly 48 hrs per the FV3

Cant draw it up any better. Oh the wait and hanging on to this/ locking it in. You'll see your foot finally

Someone do me the favor in a few minutes and post the clown map off FV3. This will be historic eye candy. 

Waiting on the clown map pastebombs tonight, showing everything painted 12÷ south of Mt Airy, BIG FROSTY.  He'll be shaded in the dusting color all the way up to the start of the event. Then when we post final storm obs he'll have 19 and rest of us will be talking about what almost was.

We saw a drone during the game and I told those folks thats that air nelson guy I bet. Went through whole spill explaining who you are. Thanks for sharing and recharge for next weekends snow. You do an awesome job and really enjoy your work.

Looking forward to tracking this storm. Hope it ends up being a Murphy To Manteo crusher for us all.

Allright last one of the season.

ROLL CALL

Hope the handull of posters in this thread from last week get one more trip in tommorow  to watch the boys net the 3peat. A rainy cold day in Boone is always better than a day spent on the laz-boy in front of a fire. After that im sitting here trying to figure out how to break the bank and get to NOLA.

1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said:

Nobody gonna share those gorgeous maps from the 12z gfs/fv3?

Sent from my SM-G960U using 

Pure wx porn no doubt. Wasnt just the 18z gfs eitheir

The pound job just continues on 18z gfs for NC.  Some of the best computer generated snow over the past several years.

And dare I say it matches up well with my winter pre-season forecast. Burns would be buying me dinner before the 1st official day of winter even gets here lol.

Man its wind whipped snow in Boone this morning.

http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

Oh I wish it was Saturday 12pm right now. Beautiful views on those webcams. Enjoy boys. Lets see if it can keep it up for 6 or so hours and maybe the nam wont look so foolish afterall . By my count this is event #3 so far this season and we still got 3 days of November left to go. Got out of the blocks fast this season. Can the winter of 18/19 be one for the record books? Well know in over 120 days

3 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

Models overnight are definitely trending favorable for next Friday. I think us mnt folk might can score a solid 2-4 event

Thatll be perfectly timed with a win today.

1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

Sure is. Was going to butches for breakfast. Nope, power out all over.


.

You made it up the mtn yet, 321. Coming up 421 , figured wetsern wilkes will be the toughest part before climb up into warmer air. Fixin to head out, so let me know if anyone in your clan come up 421. Thanks. GO APP

Was up in Boone today. West half of campus got snow, solid half inch, east side hardly any. Was a beatifull ride up 421 with all the frozen fog on elevated surfaces. We win tommorow fingers crossed we get weather like wsu verse washington on cbs now. Ripping fatties

3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looks like we may have drank the kool-aid, for the awesome indices and cold December!? Not looking that amazing now! The smoke and mirrors voodoo, is alive and well! Looks normal for the next 10-15 days

What are you looking at that makes you think this? If its the gfs 15 day generated forecast, i wouldnt put much stock into it. The euro will only get you out 10 days and thats just to Dec 1st. There is a lot of volatility right now as the global pattern is in transition mode. On the atlantic side it looks very encouraging and is what we want to see. Blocking AO and NAO going negative with alot of signs pointing towards us seeing both in the negative phase more so than the posotive for D,J,F. 

The Pacific is what the models are having a hard time figuring out long range. Need a pac Ridge to set up and more importantly position itself where the short waves, energy coming can space out better and have the opportunity to dig under us,phase with ns as opposed to having kickers pressing them along cutting to our nw or miller B ing off the mid atlantic coast.  Id be very cautious in trusting anything LR on global models until the end of next week,. Once blocking is established and in place , working real time , then we'll be able to see if we can go up against climo and score an event.  Just beacuse indicies are forecast to line up in holy grail fashion, doesnt gurantee a SEHS. Im always in the minority, but id rather have a posotive PNA locked in and entrenched over a neg NAO any day of  the week ( if I had to choose between the two). Now if I lived futher north,in the NE then I'd be singing a different tune. Get me the cold and then ill worry about the moisture . With the modoki or low end moderate el nino, you average BN on temps across the SE moreso from clouds and above normal moisture not arctic outbreaks.  We all should be encouraged from where stand at this point and time as oppossed to discouraged. In 2009-2010, the year of non stop winter tracking events. We didnt really get our 1st big event till the 3rd week of DEC and I got white rain without a trace while 10 miles up the road had 5 inches on the ground. Course both paled in comparison to the foothills,mtns. This year there is going to be a lot of events that are mixed bags and have very sharp cutoffs, leaving folks on the outside looking in. So brace yourself for more  heartaches as oppossed  to the couple of "Glory " outbreaks we will get to expierence.

Use the eps, watch it twice a day LR and youll catch the trends, pulse better for what might or might not happen.

9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

3K NAM coming in colder for the foothill locations for icing event Friday night into Saturday morning. 

How about exit stage right time?  

2 hours ago, jburns said:

I'm hearing reports of a Christmas tree shortage this year. They say it is a result of the 2008 recession when fewer trees were planted by tree farmers. Trees planted around then are the ones being harvested this year. Some cut your own farms are reportedly not even opening this year. Have any of you mountain folk heard anything about this?

We've had a family tradition for 20 years+,usually going to Sparta, Ashe County every black Friday and getting the ole tree. Happens from time to time where we have to go to different farms because the owners usually are aging out and dont have the resources such as health,kids around to help,etc. The majority of your choose n cuts are usually family owned and provide a extra source of income as oppossed to the main source. Wholesale farms are a whole different animal. But regardless of which business model a farm incorporates, if the profits where down then thats less they would be able to re-invest back into spring planting. So I could definitely see a shortage of supply to meet demand this year and next based on the economy from 8 to 10 years ago. I worked on a wholesale tree farm one harvest season back in the early 90s. Its a big investment up front and a long 7+ year wait for your return. Unlike other cash crops,you plant in the spring,harvest that fall and get paid.