NCSNOW

Check out the max along the escarpment on the euro, right through Big Frosty turf.

According the the Raleigh NWS my forecasted highest sustained winds where 12 mph from this mornings package. Gonna be TS+gust, especially SE part of county with easily 4-6 rain county wide.

I dont mind the heat today, cause its over with for good after Michael rolls by. After getting to avg 70/48 this weekend, much cokder air arrives early next week with some fronts. Should see first flakes of the season northern mtns, espeacilly up top. Been a long time coming   but summer is finally over.

5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Euro has the eye moving directly over me

Yea this will definitely catch a few folks attn when it flys by us Thurs into Fri. And again its all do to forward speed as well as its interaction with the front. Should be able to net 3 to 6 inches of rain and some 50 to 60 mph wind. 

I feel this thing will be a major when it makes landfall. Its already RI and should continue.

Thanks to forward speed, parts of NC will definitely see sustained TS force winds 50-60 mph range with a few higher gust. And I'm not talking about just along the coast. The I-74 corridor will have some sloppy wx to contend with Thursday into Friday.

Euro op is about dead center of its ensembles.

Hot as Hades today. Cant remember an october day feeling as bad as it does .

AND HOW BOUT THE PANTHERS. 63 YARDER FOR THE WIN BABY

We can drool and fantasize all we want about those glamour model pics posted above. But as of right now we are married to the 700 lb gray headed woman who cant cook,clean and has no personality what so ever. The Southeast Ridge.

Edit; she hates football, golf ,hunting,fishing as well. And its highly likely she graduated from UNC. 

Lot of chatter about this from models to LR guys. These October Canes always get my attn for no other reason than they generally have the potential to be fast movers/forward speed. That usually spells OTS. But we haven't had the luxury of a seasonal true cold front yet thanks to the Death ridge that want go away. Look at Hazel how it floundered around then turned on the jets coming up the backside of an Atlantic Ridge.

I hope this is the last week we have to report on the world famous "NC_hailstorm" 594 death ridge. If its on its way out after this week,its going out with a bang. October thru March are undoubtedly the best 6 month stretch of weather for most of us when compared to the other 6 month stretch. So lets hope we dont loose more than 1 week of it to a summer hangover that doesnt want to go away. Amazed to see the hot weather grasses around here still flush. The crab and bermuda usually are in warp speed mode toward dormancy by now. 

Gonna be a southern stream dominate pattern this year (STJ). Lets just hope we can set up the NE pacific right and get the split flow to work for us on the east coast. Gonna need some northern stream loving or we will get flooded with pacific origin air mass. Regardless if the El Nino is weak and west based. Its all about how the table sets up between the conus and Alaska. "Give me the Cold and I'll take my chances."  

12 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the Euro has been bumping up heights in the West the past few runs and digging the trough a bit more in the east. Let's get that look under 5 days and see how it goes.

Still steady as she goes. Looks like by the end of next week into the weekend we can all turn off the ACs and enjoy some specatucular weather. low 70s/50 with crashing dewpoints is gonna feel great. The guys west of apps should feel it first of course, so they are approaching the 5 day benchmark. Euro is great around 120 mark as far as consistency usually. I start watching it day 7 and if it holds a look till day 5, then it s usually very dependable espeacilly at 5H.

A good exercise is to watch the NEW GFS from day 4 to 7 and see if its improved over the garbage we use now. I know for Florence track it was way better than the current gfs mid range. day 4-7. Be great to get another dependable mid range model

Heres a drone fly over of Interstate 40 in Duplin County. This puts in perspective how dire the inland flooding is.

https://www.wfmynews2.com/video/new...a-flooded-i-40-in-duplin-county-nc/83-8255013

Sadly the death toll is up to 32 from Florence. and as feared the Cape Fear is setting new records for all time highs at many gauges. Heres a bfore and after pic I saw. This river flooding is going to be historic as many of us guessed it would be. Florence will be one of the top 10 costliest Hurricane disasters in our countrys history.

Wilmington NC has officially had its wettest year on record going back to 1871. Still has over 3 months to go. Currently sitting at 86.22

The state Record is in the Mountains. Roseman has that claim to fame at 129.6 set in 1964

The Deep River hit a all time record Crest last night. The final chapter for Florence is fixing to be written this week, espeacilly SE NC for river flooding. Hate it for those along the Cape Fear, espeacilly in Wilmington as it will be pushing all time record flood crest.

The forecast for 6 to 10 across Randolph unfortunately materialized. 

1 hour ago, Chubbiegull said:

I need to get to Charleston from Rocky Mount NC - daughter is having baby tomorrow ... DOT says 95 closed around Dunn . Wants to re route me to Hickory !!!!

 

Can anyone pinpoint roads off 95 that are flooded - I was thinking 95 to 40 to Clinton back to 95 around Lumberton -- once past Lumberton should be good to charleston

 

Lumber River not supposed to Crest until Monday

 

Take 64 west to Asheboro, then 49 south to Charlotte, then 77 south through Columbia. 

NWS. Issued flood warning ,not watch for about 6 counties in the triad till like 900 tonight

Wghp was showing river Crest forecast. I think it was Tuesday or Wednesday, the Cape Fear River in Fayetteville is supose to Crest at 62. Flood stage is like 32.  Yadkin River up triad way is supose to Crest like 33, flood stage is 17. 

The River Flooding that's coming early next week is gonna be worse than what's happened so far in tallying everything up from Florence. I'm afraid the worse is yet to come from this storm.

Official highest gust at Wilmington is 105mph. Off to the southwest she goes, probably get back over water in Brunswick county.  Bad news for Holden Beach, my family vacation spot for 25 years straight.

Bad News is the sandwich effect and duration. That surge is gonna push back on all the river basins, large areas of sounds, the big rivers are and will be flowing in reverse direction for another 48 hours possibly. Then you got 48 hours of rain coming down with nowhere to drain to.

Anyone post the 4 day rainfall total for NC , out through Monday  off GFS. Trying to see how much from the Raincaine , goofy thinks is gonna fall. Thanks

Posted by accident in the main thread, but you can watch the webcams at atlantic beach and see the waves really getting up now, occasionally kissing the underside of the pier.

Atlantic Beach webcam, can see the waves starting to lap up and smack the bottom of the pier now,occasionally. Have to wait forever for the cam to pan around. But something to see as the storm rolls in.

12z summary.

Every model land falls New Hanover or Pender county NC. Did the canadian get onslow? Any way you slice it the surge is gonna be a nightmare from Wilmington up to ocracoke right past Morehead City. But despite  this and the big wind, the flash flooding then river flooding to follow espeacilly in southern coastal plain is gonna be one for the ages I'm afraid. And that's saying alot after what's taken place just the past 20 years on our coast and enc. 

All eyes on euro and its ensembles to see if they kiss the same landfall point mentioned above by the 12z suite before doing the slow death crawl all weekend across SC