CAPE

0.95" so far. Looks like the back edge is making steady eastward progress now, so no way I see the 2" amounts the NAM forecast lol. One inch+ is way more than I expected from this event a couple days ago.

Gotta do what ya gotta do. I do all kinds of odd stuff here lol. I have no neighbors tho which is nice. One thing about the BB, the stuff is really green when it matures, and ofc does well in the shade.

@frd Just took this pic of the new grass. Not bad considering I had to keep it going for 7 weeks in a drought. I should have taken a before photo 8 weeks ago. It was sad- burnt grass/thatch, dirt, and clover lol.

Moles will be back to their normal behaviour- tunneling closer the surface and making ridges in the new lawn lol. At least when they stay subsurface they are easier to trap and I can push the grass back down. How is your new grass coming along?

Over a half inch here now. Rain coming down heavier in the last 30 mins.

12z NAM has 2"+ for our area.

0.30" here so far.

Yeah I mentioned this yesterday. This storm is moving into a wall of HP, so it will be a struggle the further north it gets. GFS has been pretty consistent with depicting this. Steady moderate rain here, and I doubt I will see any real heavy rain. Hopefully several hours of light to moderate, which is exactly what is needed to dent the drought and get moisture deeper into the soil. eta- looks like the radar is filling in nicely over your area.

Yeah I didn't want to get too off topic for this thread. Just a mention. And speculating what the pattern may look like for winter belongs in the other thread. As for the immediate mid/long range, it will be interesting to see how the currently advertised pattern evolves on the models moving towards November. Some fairly significant differences between the GEFS and the EPS. I was just commenting in some previous posts that the EPS pattern depiction looks pretty familiar, but should it verify, it probably has little relevance wrt the actual pattern that sets up for early winter- ofc if you look at tomorrow's edition of the weeklies... lol.

Rain. Very wet rain.

I doubt anyone is counting on a stable west based -NAO for winter at this point lol. Lets just hope the Pacific isn't crap, and there are enough differences heading into winter this year to think it might not be. Ofc the tendency for a hostile Pac (wrt favorable EC cold/snow patterns) may simply be another component of the "new normal".

Yeah it's early and too soon to get a good idea of the state/strength/location of the important features, and how exactly the pattern will set up for early winter. I was just commenting on a possible outcome, and one we experienced often last winter. Euro could be just exhibing its bias of dropping too much energy in the SW, if that is even an issue with its model physics anymore. Either way there is a bit of a battle in the LR. GEFS briefly does the same thing, but not to the same extent and it gets to a good looking pattern with a west-based block and eastern trough by the end of October.

Yeah the NAM was being discounted by many forecasters a day ago, but it may end up being correct. Most guidance has trended towards its closer track/wetter solution.

The guidance for several runs now has had some rain well into WV.

Updated forecast for my yard is for 1 - 1.5 inches. We shall see.

Case in point- pretty darn impressive NA look here, but surface temps are mid 60s or even higher. This looks familiar lol. Honestly not worth worrying about at this juncture. Something to keep an eye on.

WPC pretty bullish.

The look the Euro is now advertising is much like what we were' fighting' last winter although the MJO/ENSO forcing is not the same now. No one can know how this evolves going forward, so like always, we keep an eye on it and hope it doesn't become another tease-fest in the LR, only to see the advertised pattern deteriorate in later runs as we get closer to reality lol. If a monster blocking ridge in the NE Pac should become a fixture, the positive impacts from any NA blocking that develops would tend to be mitigated.

Probably not your toilet

Love the look and feel of mornings like this. Verifies that our never ending summer is over, and winter is on the way. Quite a bit of frost on the fields.

Looking through all the latest guidance, seems a pretty good bet at least the southern two-thirds of the region weill see some decent rain tomorrow. My forecast is for a half inch, and looks like an inch or more down towards the beaches.

37 here this morning. Probably a degree or 2 lower out in the open areas, so there might be some scattered frost.

Last few runs of the Euro ens mean shows a bit of a trend towards more east coast ridging at the end of October, as the EPAC ridge is further west and mean trough is in the western/central US. Still eventually gets a trough in the east, but not until the end (of the 0z run), which is early Nov, and it's not a deep trough. GEFS looks similar, but to a lesser degree, and still gets some pretty chilly air here by the very end of the month.. These LR "trends" are what I am keeping an eye on in preseason, because this was the tendency last winter on the guidance- advertise a great h5 look(esp NA block) in the day 10-15 period, but as we get closer to that timeframe, the depicted pattern becomes less favorable/gets pushed back in time. Often it never verified in real time. I guess going into this winter, I am in 'believe it when I see it mode'. And also, screw the Euro weeklies lol. Have not looked at those once since reactivating WB.

0z Euro run is much wetter for the I-95 corridor and points east than 12z. 0.5" for DC, 0.6" for Dover. Over an inch for SBY. Still pretty dry NW of Baltimore. Only about a tenth for Westminster.

Yeah it sure is. Almost NAM like. Gets my yard on the half inch line.