CAPE

This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond.

Enough of my input. I'm done here for awhile lol.Time to go eat and drink. Y'all have fun.

Pretty nice h5 look here at the end of the EPS run, but still no legit cold in our source region as depicted. If the pattern progresses as the GEFS is suggesting, there would be some improvement in that regard towards day 15. One major caveat is the MJO, which is forecast to move into the "warmer" phases, although at low amplitude. That will have to be carefully monitored. Although I think there will be a few chances over the next 10 days or so, it appears the highlands are clearly in the best position for an early season snow event at our latitude. If the GEFS is correct in continuing to amplify the western US ridge( developing -EPO) then the lowlands will be in a better position for wintry weather by mid month and beyond.

Somewhat different evolution this run. Not sure I would call that an actual block. Plenty of movement/volatility in the longwave pattern over the next week or so. The early week system ends up generally in the 50-50 position this run, but would need a better track(and not a weak wave) for significant frozen east of the mountains.

An interesting h5 look overall, but really lacking LL cold air. Would need a bowling ball to roll just to our south with dynamical cooling to get it done. Too far north this run.

Very 2013-14.

Something else interesting at the end of the 12z GFS run...been awhile since we have seen this. Something to monitor for down the road.

Some close misses to the south/missed phases on the 12z GFS but man the opportunities are not lacking.

I'm just pretending we are now in a moderate Nino. This is fun.

Any snow, in any amount, at any time, is good.

Yeah I did look at the 6z GFS and it was a glancing blow with boundary temps a tad too mild, but colder air just west. Verbatim it looked like a cold chasing rain deal. Still time for it to morph into something a bit more favorable,

Where are all the snow map posters? I only have access via the freebie sites and I didn't bother looking lol.

Lots of wave breaking in this high amplitude pattern leading to cutoffs and eventually maybe a block in the NA with time. This is one way to get it done.

The western ridge with impressive amplitude up into the EPO domain on the 6z GEFS.

I have been keeping an eye on mid month on the extended GEFS. Here is the latest depiction at h5. Best overall look yet, with what looks like a developing -EPO, and a -NAO. Southern stream should still be active too.

It's looking like a pretty decent heavy rain/wind event for early next week with that low closing off and tracking to the NW of the area. Congrats Ohio. Late next week/weekend looks semi interesting with potential complex interaction between a disturbance ejecting from the SW and northern stream energy dropping down. This has a chance to be further east/colder than the early week system.

Some snippets from a very detailed AFD from Mount Holly this afternoon- As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, a strong +PNA will develop. This begins over the weekend, then strengthens early to mid next week as an even stronger ridge builds in over the Northwest. This will force a downstream trough over the eastern and southeastern US beginning late in the weekend and likely continuing through most or all of next week, driving colder air into the southern US. Notably, this pattern is very counter to what would normally be expected in a moderate to strong La Nina. But a good reminder that other aspects of intraseasonal forcing can sometimes overcome the dominant global pattern driver. It is also usually an active, stormy pattern for the East Coast. Sunday night-Wednesday... As mentioned above, active weather is likely for this period. It will be a highly complex evolution as the new pattern takes shape. We will be watching two systems which are likely to begin interacting late in the weekend. One is a Canadian clipper low dropping towards the northern Great Lakes. The other is a robust southern stream wave propagating out of the desert Southwest, supported by an anomalously strong subtropical jet. Guidance has given strong indications for days that these systems are likely to phase over the East. However, as is usually the case, this interaction is likely to be complex, and while the general signal between models is fairly consistent, there are significant differences in details and timing. By the middle to end of next week, additional unsettled weather is possible as trailing shortwave disturbances rotate into the broader longwave trough in the East. With colder air in place, wintry outcomes may be more favored with time, but given the uncertainty associated with the early week system, changes are likely.

It is impossible to resolve the minor details associated with how a specific storm will evolve and progress at this range. All we can do is identify the major components of the pattern and determine that the potential is there. It can be the most favorable pattern ever seen on paper and still produce no snow. The advertised h5 pattern is much more of a Nino look btw.

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

Yeah probably here too, but nothing I had to drive in so not as memorable.

I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.

Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion.

Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK.

A perfect track bowling ball with cold air aloft and strong lift might get it done. The proverbial 'creator of its own cold air!' storm.

GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep.