CAPE

I have been keeping an eye on mid month on the extended GEFS. Here is the latest depiction at h5. Best overall look yet, with what looks like a developing -EPO, and a -NAO. Southern stream should still be active too.

It's looking like a pretty decent heavy rain/wind event for early next week with that low closing off and tracking to the NW of the area. Congrats Ohio. Late next week/weekend looks semi interesting with potential complex interaction between a disturbance ejecting from the SW and northern stream energy dropping down. This has a chance to be further east/colder than the early week system.

Some snippets from a very detailed AFD from Mount Holly this afternoon- As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, a strong +PNA will develop. This begins over the weekend, then strengthens early to mid next week as an even stronger ridge builds in over the Northwest. This will force a downstream trough over the eastern and southeastern US beginning late in the weekend and likely continuing through most or all of next week, driving colder air into the southern US. Notably, this pattern is very counter to what would normally be expected in a moderate to strong La Nina. But a good reminder that other aspects of intraseasonal forcing can sometimes overcome the dominant global pattern driver. It is also usually an active, stormy pattern for the East Coast. Sunday night-Wednesday... As mentioned above, active weather is likely for this period. It will be a highly complex evolution as the new pattern takes shape. We will be watching two systems which are likely to begin interacting late in the weekend. One is a Canadian clipper low dropping towards the northern Great Lakes. The other is a robust southern stream wave propagating out of the desert Southwest, supported by an anomalously strong subtropical jet. Guidance has given strong indications for days that these systems are likely to phase over the East. However, as is usually the case, this interaction is likely to be complex, and while the general signal between models is fairly consistent, there are significant differences in details and timing. By the middle to end of next week, additional unsettled weather is possible as trailing shortwave disturbances rotate into the broader longwave trough in the East. With colder air in place, wintry outcomes may be more favored with time, but given the uncertainty associated with the early week system, changes are likely.

It is impossible to resolve the minor details associated with how a specific storm will evolve and progress at this range. All we can do is identify the major components of the pattern and determine that the potential is there. It can be the most favorable pattern ever seen on paper and still produce no snow. The advertised h5 pattern is much more of a Nino look btw.

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

Yeah probably here too, but nothing I had to drive in so not as memorable.

I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.

Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion.

Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK.

A perfect track bowling ball with cold air aloft and strong lift might get it done. The proverbial 'creator of its own cold air!' storm.

GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep.

..and it will probably be gone at 18z.

12z GFS has a legit snowstorm for the western highlands early next week

lol The advertised pattern does hold some potential for somewhere, probably the mountains at our latitude. Most likely it wont be cold enough for the lowlands, but something like a closed low taking a southern track can get it done.

Another day of speculation. Lets roll!

Surprised you didn't get it. I know I'm a terrible poet, but still..

Latest extended GEFS gets really meh beyond the first week in Dec. Pacific puke galore. In early Dec, we better score!

Spammed with maps have we been?

Pouring here this morning. Looks like it should move though pretty quickly. 0.27" so far.

Better than atmospheric memory. We really need it to forget.

lol he is so awful.

High of 49 here. Currently 43.

Just checking out the Carroll County highpoint on peakbagger. I think if I made my way there I would be looking at the yard of @psuhoffman

peakbagger.com is a very cool site too. It has topo maps, identifies the highest spots in every county of every state and tells you how to get to it.

No lol. The microscale elevation differences don't factor in around here when it comes to snowfall. The interior/upper shore does better because that region is a bit further north, not close to either bay, and is far enough removed from the ocean influence for winter storms that take a favorable track. My yard is almost always colder than Easton, and does better with snow esp in marginal events. I have been commuting to Easton for many years and it's interesting to see the bay influence locally, most notable during winter.