CAPE

The point I was making is that it would be hard for it to not "catch on" at this point, considering we are now in December lol. As for the rest of winter, January isn't that far away now, and our snow climo improves a lot from today, so worth monitoring the LR pattern trends.

Not surprisingly, the new CanSIPS has a pretty good look for December, as the other LR guidance has been advertising for at least the first half. Looks like crap for the rest of met winter, as do the latest runs of the CFS.

Reading the Mt Holly AFD this morning, this made me chuckle for some reason, but ofc it's the truth. Expect low predictability to continue for another few cycles, as the complex interactions with multiple systems in both the polar and subtropical streams are of reduced scientific understanding.

Yeah poor excuse for a -NAO. 50-50 high smh.

Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina.

Mount Holly thoughts this morning- CAMs continue to indicate scattered, fragmented, multi-mode convection developing across the forecast area. Any robust convection that can get going and maintain itself will have the potential to be of the "power shower" variety. These will have the potential to bring down the stronger winds from just above the surface in the form of damaging straight line wind gusts. If the best instability is realized (>500 J/kg), I wouldn`t be surprised to see a low-topped supercell or two across the coastal plain. In addition to the convective wind potential, low level shear values will be high (40+ kts) with curved low level hodographs supportive of surface based rotation. The tornado potential is certainly non- zero with this environment, but given questionable convective mode the confidence is not particularly high on this potential.

Looks more Nina-ish at h5.. but the cold is actually better in our source region around that time. Question is, where will it dump?

The GEFS has completely given up on that idea for now, and the EPS was never into it.

Just looking at h5, I would say thats a paste bomb for the highlands.

Mount Holly concurs on uncertainty with lots of moving pieces.. Unfortunately, model spread is rather high next weekend when the southern-stream system is expected to phase with yet another digging vort max from central/eastern Canada. The solutions suggest strong cyclogenesis will occur as the surface low somewhere in the southeastern U.S. lifts northeastward during the weekend, but ultimate tracks are anywhere from the spine of the Appalachians (00z GFS) to the lee of the higher terrain (00z CMC) to well offshore (00z ECMWF), with widely varying sensible-weather results for our area. At this point, it seems prudent to mention that a potentially strong storm system may affect the area next weekend, but the details will require improved model consensus.

MJO figures to have some impact around mid month. Tropical convection is pretty non existent, but is forecast to increase some near the MC going forward. GEFS and EURO have it emerging from the COD into phase 4/5, but for now it looks like it would be on the weaker side.

3 events over the next 2 weeks.

If I'm standing on the deck that's probably about right.

For a few showers after the heavy rain? I guess lol. Looks interesting for Canaan.

This might be our first legit chance...until it trends to Toledo.

Too bad we aren't in the NE.

That's the one. Dropped to 950 at one point I think.

And @WxWatcher007 too! Cant recall if we had any other bomb cyclone chasers from here.

This one fell in between those 2. Made that winter great for me.

Yeah there is likely going to be some impact. I looked at the forecast yesterday and overall the guidance seemed to be moving the forcing into those phases, but at low amplitude/into COD.

Mount Holly with a mention of the late week 'potential' in their morning AFD. Later next week... Broad troughing continues to dominate the eastern half of the US in a +PNA/-AO pattern. Indications are for another shortwave to rotate around the base of the trough towards next Thursday, which may yield another low pressure system tracking on either side of the East Coast late in the week. This could bring additional unsettled weather to the region, more likely towards Friday or Saturday. With a cooler air mass remaining in place, portions of the area may have a chance for some wintry outcomes late next week, but this remains to be seen.

Who is doing that though? Out your way there is probably a decent chance of seeing some frozen at some point in the next week to 10 days.

Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient. Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well. The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA. Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools.

This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond.

Enough of my input. I'm done here for awhile lol.Time to go eat and drink. Y'all have fun.