CAPE

Just looking at h5, I would say thats a paste bomb for the highlands.

Mount Holly concurs on uncertainty with lots of moving pieces.. Unfortunately, model spread is rather high next weekend when the southern-stream system is expected to phase with yet another digging vort max from central/eastern Canada. The solutions suggest strong cyclogenesis will occur as the surface low somewhere in the southeastern U.S. lifts northeastward during the weekend, but ultimate tracks are anywhere from the spine of the Appalachians (00z GFS) to the lee of the higher terrain (00z CMC) to well offshore (00z ECMWF), with widely varying sensible-weather results for our area. At this point, it seems prudent to mention that a potentially strong storm system may affect the area next weekend, but the details will require improved model consensus.

MJO figures to have some impact around mid month. Tropical convection is pretty non existent, but is forecast to increase some near the MC going forward. GEFS and EURO have it emerging from the COD into phase 4/5, but for now it looks like it would be on the weaker side.

3 events over the next 2 weeks.

31 and frosty this morning.

If I'm standing on the deck that's probably about right.

For a few showers after the heavy rain? I guess lol. Looks interesting for Canaan.

This might be our first legit chance...until it trends to Toledo.

Too bad we aren't in the NE.

Most of what I have is Holly and those are dwarf Alberta Spruce around the firepit. They don't bother with that stuff. They like the day lillies and sometimes the rose bushes. Not really a big nuisance here.

Super nice day. 55 with a stiff breeze and blue skies. I did a final low mow/mulching of the straggler leaves. Ready for that inch of snow with no grass blades sticking through.

That's the one. Dropped to 950 at one point I think.

And @WxWatcher007 too! Cant recall if we had any other bomb cyclone chasers from here.

This one fell in between those 2. Made that winter great for me.

Yeah there is likely going to be some impact. I looked at the forecast yesterday and overall the guidance seemed to be moving the forcing into those phases, but at low amplitude/into COD.

Mount Holly with a mention of the late week 'potential' in their morning AFD. Later next week... Broad troughing continues to dominate the eastern half of the US in a +PNA/-AO pattern. Indications are for another shortwave to rotate around the base of the trough towards next Thursday, which may yield another low pressure system tracking on either side of the East Coast late in the week. This could bring additional unsettled weather to the region, more likely towards Friday or Saturday. With a cooler air mass remaining in place, portions of the area may have a chance for some wintry outcomes late next week, but this remains to be seen.

Who is doing that though? Out your way there is probably a decent chance of seeing some frozen at some point in the next week to 10 days.

Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient. Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well. The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA. Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools.

This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond.

Enough of my input. I'm done here for awhile lol.Time to go eat and drink. Y'all have fun.

Pretty nice h5 look here at the end of the EPS run, but still no legit cold in our source region as depicted. If the pattern progresses as the GEFS is suggesting, there would be some improvement in that regard towards day 15. One major caveat is the MJO, which is forecast to move into the "warmer" phases, although at low amplitude. That will have to be carefully monitored. Although I think there will be a few chances over the next 10 days or so, it appears the highlands are clearly in the best position for an early season snow event at our latitude. If the GEFS is correct in continuing to amplify the western US ridge( developing -EPO) then the lowlands will be in a better position for wintry weather by mid month and beyond.

Somewhat different evolution this run. Not sure I would call that an actual block. Plenty of movement/volatility in the longwave pattern over the next week or so. The early week system ends up generally in the 50-50 position this run, but would need a better track(and not a weak wave) for significant frozen east of the mountains.

An interesting h5 look overall, but really lacking LL cold air. Would need a bowling ball to roll just to our south with dynamical cooling to get it done. Too far north this run.

Very 2013-14.

Something else interesting at the end of the 12z GFS run...been awhile since we have seen this. Something to monitor for down the road.