CAPE

Recent GFS runs giving me flashbacks to last winter. One good sign going forward is some actual cold gets into Canada. The longwave pattern looks supportive of a cold shot for the east around mid month with a ridge building into the EPO region. It remains to be seen if that pattern sticks or quickly breaks down.

Dobbins, Ingram, and Brandon Williams eligible to play. Williams probably won't though with the ankle. The RG3 to Dez connection! They will probably still lose, but it may be competitive if the D and running game can play complimentary football.

I chatted with Mitchnick this morning.

Tracking scattered flurries is an amazing experience.

Take the pining for those who choose not to post here to banter lol. Bob Chill will probably return when there is an actual trackable threat.

Sipping on a 120, because why not?

The point I was making is that it would be hard for it to not "catch on" at this point, considering we are now in December lol. As for the rest of winter, January isn't that far away now, and our snow climo improves a lot from today, so worth monitoring the LR pattern trends.

Not surprisingly, the new CanSIPS has a pretty good look for December, as the other LR guidance has been advertising for at least the first half. Looks like crap for the rest of met winter, as do the latest runs of the CFS.

Reading the Mt Holly AFD this morning, this made me chuckle for some reason, but ofc it's the truth. Expect low predictability to continue for another few cycles, as the complex interactions with multiple systems in both the polar and subtropical streams are of reduced scientific understanding.

Yeah poor excuse for a -NAO. 50-50 high smh.

Very orange looking out there. Kinda cool but creepy.

Just got home. Lots of water laying around from the line that just moved through. Some legit flash flooding in places. Must have been a deluge, and the soil cant take it this time of year esp with all the rain of the last several months. 1.65" in the rain gauge here. eta- looks like an inch of that fell in the last hour.

Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina.

Mount Holly thoughts this morning- CAMs continue to indicate scattered, fragmented, multi-mode convection developing across the forecast area. Any robust convection that can get going and maintain itself will have the potential to be of the "power shower" variety. These will have the potential to bring down the stronger winds from just above the surface in the form of damaging straight line wind gusts. If the best instability is realized (>500 J/kg), I wouldn`t be surprised to see a low-topped supercell or two across the coastal plain. In addition to the convective wind potential, low level shear values will be high (40+ kts) with curved low level hodographs supportive of surface based rotation. The tornado potential is certainly non- zero with this environment, but given questionable convective mode the confidence is not particularly high on this potential.

Looks more Nina-ish at h5.. but the cold is actually better in our source region around that time. Question is, where will it dump?

The GEFS has completely given up on that idea for now, and the EPS was never into it.

Just looking at h5, I would say thats a paste bomb for the highlands.

Mount Holly concurs on uncertainty with lots of moving pieces.. Unfortunately, model spread is rather high next weekend when the southern-stream system is expected to phase with yet another digging vort max from central/eastern Canada. The solutions suggest strong cyclogenesis will occur as the surface low somewhere in the southeastern U.S. lifts northeastward during the weekend, but ultimate tracks are anywhere from the spine of the Appalachians (00z GFS) to the lee of the higher terrain (00z CMC) to well offshore (00z ECMWF), with widely varying sensible-weather results for our area. At this point, it seems prudent to mention that a potentially strong storm system may affect the area next weekend, but the details will require improved model consensus.

MJO figures to have some impact around mid month. Tropical convection is pretty non existent, but is forecast to increase some near the MC going forward. GEFS and EURO have it emerging from the COD into phase 4/5, but for now it looks like it would be on the weaker side.

3 events over the next 2 weeks.

31 and frosty this morning.

If I'm standing on the deck that's probably about right.

For a few showers after the heavy rain? I guess lol. Looks interesting for Canaan.

This might be our first legit chance...until it trends to Toledo.

Too bad we aren't in the NE.