CAPE

You got one? I dont.

90 min IPA time I think.

Good stuff here. Eye opening. You can also see the projections by state. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Its creeping up here a bit, but no sign of any sun. 56 now. At this point I would be surprised to see the forecast high of 72.

That's a cool link.

Its up to 52 here!

12z 3km NAM is wholly unimpressive, but the 12z HRRR gets a modest line of convection going for N central MD later on.

Looks like a there is good amount of shear but pretty weak instability to establish/sustain updrafts. If the warm front clears early enough, and some places can get a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s, might be enough to kick off a few decent cells ahead of the cold front. This is all above my pay grade though lol.

50 and drizzle here. Temp has not budged since early morning yesterday. Forecast is still for low 70s here this afternoon, but high bust potential. I would love a few hours of sun with temps in the 70s.

Yeah I saw something like 60 cases?

Mount Holly AFD is a tad comical wrt to forecast temps tomorrow. Looks like a high bust potential.. A cold front will extend eastward then southward from the low and surge toward the area during the day as a strong midlevel jet streak races northeastward to the Northeast. As a result, the warm front should lift northward during the day, but I suspect the ageostrophic contribution to the onshore flow via upslope is being underplayed. Confidence is high enough to keep the northern CWA quite chilly tomorrow (around or below 50), whereas southern Delmarva will approach 80. Of course, temperatures in between are the tricky part and will ultimately depend on very short-term trends/guidance. In other words, expect the temperature forecast to be susceptible to considerable error in portions of the CWA. To illustrate, the latest MET MOS for PHL is 57 for tomorrow, and the latest MAV MOS projects 70. Even worse for GED: 66 versus 84. Yikes. For now, the forecast is generally weighted toward the colder NAM- based guidance but with some input from statistical guidance as well.

Been 50 all day here. Tomorrow will be interesting. Going to be a battle zone with the warm front and the low level maritime air mass in place. The warm front should win out later in the day here I would think. Expecting to see low 70s by late afternoon here.

Certainly appears its KC and the Ravens in the AFC, and then the rest. There are always surprises every season in the NFL though.

Ex-Broncos DE Derek Wolfe, Ravens agree to 1-year deal Great move by the Ravens, after the Brockers deal fell through. Might even be better in the end, as he is a better pass rusher with a high motor, which was a big need for the Ravens. DeCosta continues to get it done, pre draft. D-line is solidified now, and should be significantly better than last season. eta- its a one year deal for a max of 6 million with incentives. A bargain compared to the Brockers deal, which I felt was above market value. I like this a lot, as they have plenty of cap space left to make another FA signing, or save it for the draft.

Hope all works out for the best, friend.

Love RAR. Drinking a Nanticoke Nectar IPA with my dinner- which is quintessential for a single dude living in a log cabin in the woods during a pandemic. Pop open a can of tuna, mix with some mayo and onions, slap it on a slice of bread, and broil with Swiss cheese on top. Steam some fresh broccoli and season with salt and pepper and a squeeze of lemon. Fukking gourmet. Now, back to the important stuff. Drinking..

Damn that sounds good.

Just cracked open the TENFIDY.

Yeah it will be a challenge to figure out how far north the warm front gets(and how soon). Looks like there will be a pretty large temp gradient somewhere through our area or just north.

Looks like that's it. 0.88" and 4.3" for the month now. Hopefully models are correct and my yard stays dry from now through Monday at least. I think I know how this is going to go as we head into mid summer though lol.

Impressive line moving through now with booming thunder. Absolutely pouring.

Rumbling here too. 0.55" so far

Freaking pouring here this morning.

It has not happened yet though. Possible it may in the years to come. His area could become the equivalent of the western NC Piedmont climo. Yours would be like SE coastal NC. So are you predicting this with confidence?

I've moved on to voddy tonics.