CAPE

LOL "Called out" by a legit troll. GTFOH. You really are a dope. Maybe you aspire to be like him. If that's the path you want to take here, go for it. Good luck with that. I don't think you have what it takes tho.

Because you say the same general things yet weenie him? Doesn't take brilliance (although I am brilliant) to see that. Still waiting for your first quality post bro. You have been around here for a year or so now. About time, yeah?

Its the same thing every year. The bad vibes and anticipated doom probably begins earlier after a historic ratter that followed a really mediocre winter for most, considering it was technically a weak Nino. Some folks simply will not accept the objective data(reality), and insist that winters should be consistently "good" here based on anecdotal crap. I try to have fun with it though. At this juncture, it is silly to think anything is etched in stone. I actually enjoyed the previous 2 Nina winters more than the last 2 winters, which were warm neutral/ puny, impotent, weak Nino. I will roll the dice with a cold neutral or weak Nina. Odds are we get a few decent events, and end up near average. I'll take it.

You literally sound just like the dude you constantly "attempt" to troll. Stick to the weenie reactions. Much safer.

lol Except I never "make calls". And do keep the drive-bys coming. What would we do without your occasional mediocre attempts at abrasiveness.

And we are probably due for a fluke or 2. We were unlucky the last couple winters with events tracking to our south. No one should be on the ledge over the seasonal/climate model depictions.. They all look "bad" but the skill is terrible at this range, and even if the mean h5 pattern does end up similar to whats currently advertised, there will be opportunities within the typical 3 or 4 weeks where the pattern is more favorable for winter events.

I am thinking of changing the thread title to "Winter 2020-21 Pissing and Moaning".

He gets too emotional. I apparently hate snow now because I understand that it doesn't typically snow much in December around here lol. I will back off on the salt.

You seem a little hysterical. You don't seem to be able to make a distinction between having a little fun with the situation, and serious discussion/speculation of the data we have in front of us.

Do you ever pay attention here? Get a grip dude.

I am simply in touch with reality.

Given how bad things are looking... are you currently accepting applications?

All MA weenies seem to pine for/ romanticize the idea of snowy Decembers. Sorry. You want that? Drive to the micro climate mountain regions, or head to NE.

What is the rationale for this? A weak Nina? The reality is this- climo mean/median for the coastal plain of the MA, and even the Piedmont in most years, clearly shows that December is more of a fall month, and it simply doesn't snow much.

^Wheres Mersky? Obligatory reaction required here.

Track tropical. Could be epic. When winter comes, be prepared to travel. There should still be some really good deals on airfare.

lol "possible in the future." "need 100 times more ensemble members". All to tell us what we already know. A legit -NAO during winter is now an urban myth.

I guess we can hang our hats on solar min to possibly contribute to HL blocking in order to tilt the expected generally unfavorable pattern a bit more in our favor. IMO that correlation, along with the QBO, to negative AO/NAO episodes seems very nebulous. If I was making predictions I would not give either of those factors much weight, esp in what looks to be a Nina winter. Not sure what else we got though lol.

More data on temperature tendencies during a La Nina winter. Certainly some variability, but you can see from these panels that a mean ridge in the east is pretty common. The problem with the years that are on the colder side, is they also tend to be dry for the SE and MA region due to dominant northern jets (Polar/Pacific).

1927

^ that was the year I moved down here from Carroll county. I was like- damn people said it doesn't snow much here? Really??? eta- that Superbowl Sunday storm is easily top 10 in my lifetime. Terrible game though.

Yeah you are right. It was 1988 that was Nina. Jan-Feb 1987 was sweet.

I pretty much said the same thing in my post above in response to Maestro's post. I have fond memories of 1986-87, esp Jan and Feb. Was that winter a cold neutral? I have seen some references to it as a weak Nina, but not sure that's correct. The latter half of the winter behaved more like a NIno IIRC. It also featured some decent HL blocking.

Sorry not laughing at you, but the bolded made me laugh. A SE ridge (and generally warmer temps along the east coast) is pretty typical in La Nina years, esp moderate to strong La Ninas. As always, other factors/indices will impact the overall pattern as well, so not like it's always a complete torch all the time. Lucky for us, this winter looks to feature a pretty weak event, and may end up being more of a cold neutral. Given our apparent "new normal" background state however, I would still expect frequent episodes of SE ridging, with the mean trough located out west.