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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Snow growth definitely sucks in these bands behind the front. It's the same here with the radar- looks good but ground truth is underwhelming. Cold(dry) air advection.
  2. CAPE
    Eyeballing a quarter inch drift on the deck.
  3. CAPE
    Best snow of the day here now. Small flakes but bigger than pixie. Coming down "intensely". The 1-3 forecast is a bust but might get a decent coating if a few good bands pass through.
  4. CAPE
    This event did not fail due to "warmth" in the lowlands. The cold came in right on schedule. Lack of precip at that point is the problem, and the 6z NAM kinda nailed that. Dead zone in between the better forcing to the west behind the front, and the slug of moisture that moved along/ahead of the front that was rain.
  5. CAPE
    Ripping sideways pixie dust lol. Very light dusting. Maybe some of those bands to the west will eventually make it here. If they do the timing will be good. Temp is 31.
  6. CAPE
    Some flakes flying here again after a bit of a sunny interlude. Temp still 32.
  7. CAPE
    You are further east as well, and I wasn't glued to the radar earlier, but it looked like the best forcing/heaviest area of snow passed west of you.
  8. CAPE
    Nice pics. That last one looks wind blown. I wouldn't think that elevation difference would make much difference in this situation. Your area got the best forcing and also good timing.
  9. CAPE
    Where you are there is a decent chance for that as you already have some snow otg and the cold entrenched. My recent posts were more about the general setup and the tendency for the outcome to be underwhelming, despite those weenie snow maps everyone loves lol. I got exactly what I expected here. Maybe I can get a band or 2 come through that will whiten the ground a bit.
  10. CAPE
    It's not completely done, but accumulating snow requires some persistent rates during the day now. Probably looking at periods of light to moderate snow. Best chance would be a late afternoon squall as the temps continue to drop. HRRR was suggesting that on earlier runs but I haven't looked at guidance recently.
  11. CAPE
    Precip always moves out quicker than models depict in these situations. One reason I didn't post much and was skeptical even as the trends were colder sooner. Experience tells us how this ends up with a progressive/positively oriented trough the majority of the time. Sunny here now!
  12. CAPE
    I agree. This was always a wave or 2 moving along a progressive cold front. The guidance generally depicted a relatively brief area of forcing, and somewhat localized, behind the front in the colder air. We suck at anafrontal, regardless of temps.
  13. CAPE
    After an hour of mostly light sleet, changed to snow here in the last 30 mins with some big flakes coming down now and a temp of 32. Sun peaking out though lol. Unfortunately most of the precip is over. Good shot of rain as expected. 0.81" Looks like cold and windy with snow showers the rest of the afternoon.
  14. CAPE
    34.5 with moderate sleet, and wind ofc.
  15. CAPE
    Wind suddenly kicked up and temp fell 5 degrees pretty quickly. Down to 42. Moderate to heavy rain. 0.66" so far.
  16. CAPE
    Nice. Change that profile photo, at least for a day.
  17. CAPE
    I like the look of this window for my yard. Some of that is rain and then sleety verbatim on the 6z GFS, but temps are crashing during this time and it might be hanging onto a warm layer aloft that could be overcome with the heavier precip. If its a tad colder later in this period I might end up with 3" instead of an inch or so.
  18. CAPE
    47 with moderate rain here. Just started in the last 20 mins.
  19. CAPE
    I am more interested in getting the fertilizer soaked in lol. Grass already greening up nicely. I am hoping for a decent few hours later with a combo of light to moderate snow falling, big wind, and crashing temps. That would be fun to watch, and I am not really concerned about how much. An inch would get me over 20, so I suppose that's my "bar".
  20. CAPE
    1-3" is the forecast, which I guess is about right given the range of guidance, but I would be surprised to see more than an inch. The best forcing within the cold air looks to happen west of here, and it doesn't look as impressive on latest guidance. Your area gets in on it, but then it seems to shift more to the NE.
  21. CAPE
    Not even an advisory here so I wont even bother looking out the window today. If I end up with a couple inches it won't count.
  22. CAPE
    You forgot the flash freeze and the white-out squalls. Deep winter and stuff.
  23. CAPE
    This should have been a great event out there. Color me surprised at how this has (apparently) evolved. Never woulda thunk it a few days ago. Still having a hard time believing the corridor will do better, but evidence seems to be mounting.
  24. CAPE
    Welcome, Spring.
  25. CAPE
    Funny, but since you do important FB forecasting for soccer moms, I am sure you aren't conflating here.
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