Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    37,332

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Da hell is going in in here? Been busy but not much has changed imo. The period around the 28th still offers some potential for wintry weather, esp for climo favored areas.
  2. CAPE
    A blend of ens guidance over the past few days has suggested highs in the 40s on Thanksgiving, then somewhat colder for the days to follow. Not sure I see anything different right now, but it is still a ways off and with the pattern in transition there are plenty of moving pieces. A lot depends on the interaction between the amplifying EPO ridge, the building heights in the NA, and the TPV lobe.
  3. CAPE
    KC was a winner last night. With Bengals falling to 5-5, losing Burrow for at least a couple games, and the Andrews injury, they are (once again) clearly in the driver's seat.
  4. CAPE
    Losing Andrews is a big blow to any SB aspirations imo. He is that valuable. Always money, and Lamar's security blanket. Is what it is though. That style of tackling needs to be looked at, but in today's NFL it's already hard enough for defenders to make 'clean' hits and tackles.
  5. CAPE
    Some cold Nov rain would make me happy. Dust bowl out there.
  6. CAPE
    Looks like it will be chilly for a spell. The pretty colors in the 'right places' on guidance is nice to see. Climo rules. It isnt early Feb.
  7. CAPE
    There was a similar post in that thread a few days ago and the RR-signal went out. He rarely misses.
  8. CAPE
    Awesome. I bet you were ready given all the discussion about atmospheric blocking and ENSO on this forum. That pic is a composite from Dec 1 to Feb 15 iirc, during the epic 2009-10 season ofc.
  9. CAPE
    The 0z EPS looks quite active around the 28th too. When I made the original posts early this morning that run had not completed yet.
  10. CAPE
    SPV is forecast to be somewhat perturbed going forward. Can see a nice stretch and on the temp anomaly panel it looks a bit toasty. Forecast strength and position of the SPV at 10 and 50 mb, along with TPV locations at h5-
  11. CAPE
    GEPS has it too- a bit further south.
  12. CAPE
    Nice signal on the 0z GEFS with a discrete shortwave that tracks NE to the MA coast on the 28th.
  13. CAPE
    Don't forget the -h5 height anomalies across the mid south/SE up into the MA. Classic Nino.
  14. CAPE
    A bit silly but just for fun. The latest Euro Weeklies @h5 for Xmas into New Years.
  15. CAPE
    The ens mean ofc has a stronger signal for frozen(albeit still modest) than the previous 2 runs where the op snowed on us. This upcoming period is good practice if nothing else. We gonna be busy this winter.
  16. CAPE
    HH GFS is just a bit different for the 28th lol. Doesn't look to be 3 op runs in a row with snow.
  17. CAPE
    A model based on collecting a ton of data from satellites combined with AI/machine learning
  18. CAPE
    Spire lookin good
  19. CAPE
    Faint signal on the GEFS for the 28th. A long way off, but the 26th seems to be the beginning of the window of interest based on current guidance. Much of the heavier precip is along the SE coast and offshore on the mean from the 26th- 29th.
  20. CAPE
    Canadian has the ridge bridge. Impressive -NAO.
  21. CAPE
    That would be a wet Thanksgiving eve.
  22. CAPE
    We rarely see wall to wall cold in Dec in these parts regardless of Enso state.
  23. CAPE
    Yeah latest GEFS has it progressing through phase 2 at low amplitude, then into phase 3 but pretty weak. Other guidance has it weaker and then into the COD before progressing into phase 3. We shall see. Probably will have a mild period in December regardless, and the state of the SPV going forward is a wildcard.
  24. CAPE
    The latest extended products depict the continuation of a respectable to favorable longwave pattern into Dec. Both the Euro weeklies and GEFS ext maintain the same general h5 look, with normal to below normal temps for eastern US the entire month verbatim. Certainly no suggestion of a hostile pattern or a 2 week+ torch. Mid to late month actually looks the best on both, a pretty classic Nino look with lower heights across the south/southeast US (fwiw).
  25. CAPE
    Sure does. And the pattern reloading at the end of the run. The SPV becomes quite perturbed on the GFS beginning next week, so this is likely influencing what is being depicted at h5.
×
×
  • Create New...