CAPE

6z ICON looked good.

We just can't know yet. Mount Holly AFD- Beyond Friday, the main question becomes whether the ridging to our north will "relax" enough for the coastal low to our south to move northward bringing rain to our area over the weekend. If this does happen, rainfall amounts could be significant due to both the slow movement of the system and its potential of drawing in tropical moisture with PWATs around 2+ inches. Forecast models are still struggling though with both variability from one model update cycle to the next and between the different models. The 0z deterministic runs of the GFS and the GEM Global continue to allow the low to track far enough northward to bring the area significant rainfall and strong E/NE winds beginning Saturday lasting into Sunday while the 12z ECMWF was more surpressed keeping the low and its heaviest rainfall farther south. The 0Z ECMWF has trended farther north however. We did increase POPs above NBM (National Blend of Models) with this update as we`re thinking it`s likely that the system will bring rainfall at least as far north as the I-95 corridor by late Saturday into Saturday night. There is uncertainty though regarding time of arrival and of course amounts.

The 0z op run looked fine, and 6z GEFS is actually slightly better than 0z GEFS wrt rainfall across the region.

WPC is buying the idea of significant rainfall for the entire area D5-7 on their latest qpf forecast.

12z run made a move to a stronger upper ridge over Hudson Bay, and thus a stronger surface HP just to the SE in eastern Canada. Acting as more of a block rather than a progressive high. Suppresses the SE LP/forces the deep moisture more offshore. GFS and CMC disagree.

1.01" total for the overnight/early morning event. 4.9" for the month

Potential for heavy rain this weekend based on current guidance, via a tropical moisture feed.

Rain fell pretty much all night here, mostly moderate in intensity. Still some light rain ongoing, but it looks like the heavier stuff has shifted off to the east. 0.83"

What a day indeed. Weed/beer/wine blend with some nice food makes it even better.

Big win for the Os! Good day for Balmer sports fans.

Burrow not quite 100%, but given how many weapons they have, and staring at an 0-2 start, incredibly impressive for the Ravens to go to their place, down 4 starters, losing OBJ for the game, and getting it done.

That. Was. Impressive.

51 here this morning

High of 75 Currently 66. Windows open.

Same here. Still feels great. Been outside since 7am doing yard stuff. No skeeters!

Very odd how quickly they went into the shitter. Probably just law of averages. Hopefully this isnt the first time they get swept.. but they are due.

So nice out. 61 at 830. Made better with this Old Fashioned and a bit of weed.

High of 73. What a nice early Fall day

low of 54

76 here. Nice evening upcoming. Go Os!

Losing 2 straight to the Cardinals and scoring a combined 2 runs in those games is a bit of a head scratcher.

Need some chilly air now to get rid of these invasive Asian mosquitoes.

3.9" for the month here now. That 3 week dry spell is a memory.

Yeah it looked like the line developed just to the east, and the cells trained/redeveloped from SW to NE as the line progressed very slowly eastward.