CAPE

Disco from Mount Holly on the rain threat for later today and tonight- The main focus for this evening and tonight will be the potential for convection. The greatest instability will be located across our western zones this afternoon and early evening. Guidance indicates this will spread east into tonight as the aforementioned height falls and shortwaves begin streaming into the area. Guidance, including the CAMs, are notoriously poor at accurately modeling these types of subtly forced nocturnal convective regimes. If you need any proof, have a look at the past several days upstream across the central CONUS. Thus predictability and confidence in the details of the convection for tonight is low. Fortunately we do have some synoptic clues to help us out. As of now, it appears the greatest potential for convection will begin ramping up in our western zones around 4-6 PM or so, with increasing chances of convection spreading gradually eastward by the 8 PM to 12 AM time frame. The greatest height falls and instability appear to be during the 12-4 AM time frame, thus this is when PoPs with this forecast package are the greatest in the likely range. As one may guess, the PoPs will likely need to be adjusted in future updates as confidence in the details of timing and coverage of convection increase.

Looked like this would be a quick hitting shower then clear out, but additional cells formed behind the initial line. Ended up getting a decent little soaking with a few torrential downpours. 0.57" Wasn't expecting anything with only a slight chance of showers in the forecast for today. Yardwork on hold.

Kicking off July with a nice downpour.

That disintegrated quickly lol. 0.02".

Wasn't expecting anything today here, but might pick up a bit from the decaying line. Amazing how dry it is despite getting 1.2" just a couple days ago. Well drained soil, long days, and big ass trees sucking up all the moisture.

Not even a marginal risk. No meso disco. We just can't know.

If you can survive OK, you shouldn't have much of a problem around here. As a weather enthusiast, you should have some sense of this.

Irish Spring. How any human can stand it is beyond me, but deer don't seem to like it. Put part of a bar(or a whole one) in a stocking and hang above whatever plant you want to protect using a Shepard's hook. Saved my roses a few times.

A couple shots from Terrapin Park today. Needless to say it wasn't cloudy/ foggy. 'smoke on the water'. Wild.

I was just messing with you the other day. It is uncanny how that area almost always jackpots. Too bad it doesn't work that way for frozen lol.

2.2" for the month.

Pretty decent setup for heavy rain this weekend into early next week. Trough to the west with juicy air surging northward.

Must be an impressive gradient over the last couple days between your location and along the HoCo BaCo line.

Shot of the western sky as the storm was ending.

1.21" total. Another line headed east towards the bay. Probably will weaken/slide a bit south.

This 'have not' became a 'have' finally. 1.10"

Best storm here since- April maybe? Torrential rain, gusty winds, and T&L. Nothing severe. Perfect.

Decent outflow boundary pushing ahead of the approaching line on radar. Lets see if this finds a way to fail here lol.

Incoming. Looks promising... couldn't possibly fail. Ahahaha.

Definitely a bit of a hole here the last month. @WxUSAF

Not a drop yesterday. Picked up 0.03 this morning as a scrap from the better stuff just to my north and east. Recurring theme here. Looks like another chance for failure later lol.

About what I'm expecting. Maybe one day I will have nice things, but probably not today.