CAPE

Sorry for all the good vibe spammage. I'm on my third cup. Very good set of ens runs at 0z and 6z imo, and I kind of liked the 6z GFS op too. Heading outside to spilt firewood and do some pre-Spring yard work. Love mulching in the cold with no bugs.

Much improved from some of the ensemble runs yesterday, where there was too much interaction too soon between the southern wave and NS vorticity. Such a nice h5 look right there.

Much stronger signal for a gulf low tracking towards the east coast. Nice surface setup.

Here comes the next wave. Gotta love a Nino.

6z GEFS has a stronger signal for the 4-5th window.

6z GFS is very close to something for the 4th-5th, then drops the hammer sending a TPV lobe south, pushing the thermal boundary to south Georgia lol.

0z Euro op at the end of the run was snowing on NC into central VA.

0z EPS indications for the 4th and the 7th.

0z GEFS has our storm for the 7th, and before that snows on NC on the 4th.

Possibly, yes. Hard to say at this range, but verbatim, the higher probability for frozen with the initial wave would be NW of your area too. Ofc at 0z this will likely be at least somewhat different.

Not quite correct. The initial wave has more interaction with NS energy and a significant number of members track the primary low to our NW, and that's where the strongest signal for frozen is. So, you missed the point.

The thing about a Nino is there is seemingly always another wave, and on an ensemble mean at range with disparity among the members, it is sometimes difficult to make a distinction between one wave and the next. maybe this isnt the one- and this one is. looks colder/snowier on the mean, with surface low placement further SE.

Still plenty of spread among the members on the timing/track and even the specific waves that are the ultimate players for this event.

More consolidated than the 12z run for sure, and stronger ridging into GL. Looking more blocky.

That's what I'm thinking.

Doesn't have the insane NA block, but other than that not too bad, and pretty typical Nino look.

I like the indication on the HH GEFS of TPV energy phasing into the existing lower heights in the 50-50 region ahead of our potential storm.

Difficult to know exactly what to root for this far out with so many pieces of energy flying around(not that it matters), but the timing and interactions between them will make all the difference in the final outcome. It all works out this run, and it has in some recent runs, so we at least know it is meteorologically possible to get a snowstorm in this window. Ensembles have been pretty persistent overall depicting a favorable outcome, but also give us an indication of the uncertainty and the most likely failure mode(s). Some understandably hate it, but I enjoy the complexity and challenge of doing the analysis at this range.

For the 6th-7th some of the GEFS members involve a stronger piece of NS energy dropping southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV, which is visible on the ens mean. Something to keep an eye on going forward. The 12z members that have a storm are a mixture of low pressure rolling across the southern states and emerging off the SE/MA coast(what we want), a primary OV low with some sort of secondary development, to a prominent NS low digging south and tracking over the GLs/NE with any secondary development too far north/offshore. In this particular setup we probably want the the NS shortwaves to stay out of the way. Always challenges with random wave interactions lol. Still a long way to go.

Hell yeah. Gimmie an inch or 2 to properly get on the board, even if it ends up a slushy mess and is gone a few hours later.

It's probably not binary, and we can always nitpick. I like the general look and all my posts have been focusing on the idea of a more modest wave tracking underneath, which still seems like a good bet. It seems pretty likely there will be some snow in at least part of the MA for this period. We just cant know the details yet.

That is a good look and places cold on air the doorstep, but a NS wave dropping southeastward overtop the ridge could induce LP further north/west than we want. Seeing that idea on the latest ens runs as a possibility. A little deeper bowl would be nice.

Pretty much everything is on the table this far out, including an outcome that would satisfy many in our region. The EPO ridge position/amplitude has been persistent on guidance for awhile, but it doesn't appear there will be an established -NAO for this period- more of a transient feature as multiple lows track into the 50-50 region increasing h5 heights there. Nothing wrong with that but it will probably require a bit more timing and luck.

There some ens members that focus on a NS wave with SLP tracking into the OV and up into interior NE.

Potential still there on the latest GEFS. No complaints about the look up top. EPO ridge and TPV placement direct colder air southeastward, and a bit of a -NAO with a wave moving along the Gulf coast states.