40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think if the heights crash enough, we can alleviate that, somewhat....like a mini 2015 type deal....the gradient is displaced more to the south that run, since the ambient heights are so low in the NE.
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Looks like the difference was that the SW energy was more proficiently ejected into the N stream energy that came over the EPO ridge...the SW energy was more lethargic in joining the fray on 00z.
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That is the legit upside that we were talking about. Note how it goes from the 1001 to 990mb in 6 hours under LI.....that is what you want for good banding, as the rate of deepening is due to the mid levels coming together. You don't need to see a 960mb low for a major storm.
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Yea, that period of the first legit threat.
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Hope for a coating.
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Of course, I just mean general odds based on the pattern.
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Looks like the first real threats are a week from tomorrow, and then the following Monday (1/26). One of those will probably whiff or graze us.
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I do need to step away for a few days, but this place is like a damn drug. This long weekend I probably will.
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I'm not broken at all....life is better than I had ever imagined. Just sucks having more free time at the new job, but nothing to track.
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How are you feeling these days? Hope you are better.
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Poor MJO, everytime the guy open his mouth, a slew of weenies get cranked in it lol
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Hope they are better than the EURO thermals if you want your N Berkshire 1-2"....I think I'd prefer bitching about the Hadley Cell lol:
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I agree with you...I think that is the path to a really significant snow event, as I'm not crazy about a big coastal until maybe near the end of the month.
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Here is life with the Hadley Cell factored in:
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That is quite a se ridge on the long range GFS...wow. Nice overunning.
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I know the Tip Cell exists.....don't sweat it.
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You will, but there will just be no cold air to be found and it will be rain.
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I would place Steve at the other end of the spectrum...that guy would get fired up over a report of dew up in Tickass, ME, then come up with a graph illustrating it from some esoteric sight at a moments notice. Gotta admire his passion...
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Odds are they won't all miss, but its just shows the risk.
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You are in for it, brother....he is going to wrap that 348 page AMS article around your neck-
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He certainly wouldn't save me from the damn Hadley Cell...dude would toss his own mother into the jaws of the ever expanding Hadley monster.
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I'm not implying that you are too intense, just that you seem to be preoccupied with that HC phenomenon....we all get it. Its a thing that is at least partially responsible for the modulation of the atmosphere over time, but the fact that stronger la nina events are hostile for major east coast snow storms is not a novel concept.
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Jesus, John, I'm not refuting anything. I'm merely suggesting that the HC, while it doesn't help, is not the reason mod-strong la ninas are unfavorable for big east coast snowstorms. Its always been the case and always will be. What did you do, sleep with the dude who wrote that paper? Holy shit....its okay if you did, no one this day and age would view you differently.
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Safest bet for some snow maybe to just EPO load a cold air mass, ditch the NAO block, and slam the storm to the west and into the cold. SWFE.
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Problem is that you have a huge 50/50 low that just sits in place, and a se ridge beneath that....so even if the system avoids getting squashed south by the 50/50, you still need to hope the gradient between the se ridge and the 50/50 low doesn't grind it to shit. You can console yourself by wondering how every wave can be suppressed with a se ridge in place, but at the end of the say, its not the only issue.
