I agree with you....this easterly flow is not the type of set up to see big discrepancies due to low level fronto....I don't expect big subby or enhancement due to CF here. Dec 17 was that yype of system...this isn't IMO.
That is the thing....the NARCAN algorithm excels at accurately conveying snowfall given the modeled thermal profile. If the model is too warm, then the map will be off.