February Recap; March Preview And Late Week Winter Storm Potential
February Review
Yet another mild month is in the books, as the January through February mid tier of winter has been one of the warmest on record across the northeastern US. While a mild middle portion of winter was anticipated here at Eastern Mass Weather, it has verified significantly milder than expected, which was a potential specified last fall in the event that the robust polar vortex did not weaken.
Here are our expressed thoughts from last November:
"Full-fledged RNA ensues for February, as any influence that weak el nino or warm-neutral coupling had established may die. In The polar vortex will need to relent, or this will be a very mild month with the storm track west. +1to +2 throughout the northeast. +2 to +3 in the mid atlantic. Beware an eventful president's day should blocking establish itself. February 17-March 2nd may be conducive."- Eastern Mass Weather 11-13-19
Obviously the polar vortex has not relented as intimated it would. This is the reason that winter has never recovered and the identified 2-17 to 3-2 window will fail to produce a major winter storm, since the Pacific has remained hostile, as anticipated. The result is that the northeast has verified closer to +3 to +4 above average for the month of February, as opposed to the forecast of +1 to +2F. The mid atlantic +5 to +6F, instead of the expected +2 to +3.
While February did in fact verify slightly warmer than expected, the forecast was much more accurate than the absurdly warm January 2020, which was one of the warmest winter months in recorded history. As tempting as it may be to declare winter officially over, old man winter still has one final chance for redemption.
March Preview
The eastern Mass Weather forecast for March appears largely on track, with some warmer potential.
The expressed narrative sentiment from this past fall is as follows:
"Winter will be waning long before month's end in the absence of high latitude blocking, given the hellacious southeast ridge in place. However, at least some sustained blocking is likely. And since there will be cold air lurking to the north at the very least, this does not look like a "dead-ratter", even without blocking. Temperatures should average around 1 degree below normal in New England, and around normal in the mid atlantic".
The forecast will likely verify somewhat warmer than the forecast -1 departure, since again, the polar vortex has remained stout and no blocking of any kind looks to materialize. The outlook hedged on at least some modest blocking. But the notion that there should be cold air lurking nearby throughout Canada does indeed appear valid, so there should be continued opportunities for snowfall for at least northern New England. And southern New England has a window of opportunity before milder weather returns towards mid month, as implied last fall in the absence of blocking.
Pacific Flex March 6-10
Ironically enough, it appears as though a several day relaxation of the predominately hostile Pacific regime appears to set the stage for a potential winter storm around March 6.
While the north atlantic and arctic, which were forecast to become more favorable around this timeframe, remain unfavorable for winter storms across southern New England. However, despite the largely unfavorable north atlantic, long range guidance is hinting that a pseudo 50/50 low feature may be fortuitously timed (or unfavorably, dependent on perspective) with the approaching system.
This is denoted on the European ensemble guidance:
The Canadian:
And the GFS ensemble:
It is unlikely that winter is over given the climatology of seasons that have produced major early December snowfalls such as this one, so stay tuned-
