40/70 Benchmark

Wet bulbing...down to 37.0 now. Should hit 35 IMO.

The only aspect that was la nina like was the prevalent RNA during the second half, although there have been past la nina seasons that featured good deal of blocking.

37.6/30.7 Down from Hi of 38.7

You sure? Wife confirmed flurries in Methuen...or as Kev says, "Metheun".

I get what you mean in that past ENSO composites need to be modified, but I'm not sure that that will change the fact that there is a more prominent STJ during el nino than la nina...or let me rephrase, until I see evidence that that is no longer the case, I'll take my chances on scoring a big fish in a strong el nino, rather than la nina.

WB is like 35, though...

I am cooked at home. 38.1/29.9

Yea, strong canonical el nino seasons are very mild....no debating that.

How prominent was your expanded HC in Feb 1983 and Dec 1997? What it means is that high-end events are much more frequent in strong el nino seasons than in strong la nina seasons during the period of record, regardless of why.

Does the wife know you and he are that close?

Nice. Maybe Kev sniffed one out-

No, because I would have the day off, unlike for 2" of "who cares"-

His love for weather runs deeper than mine.....your's does, too. I only get excited over snow and hurricanes. But I do follow mundane weather on a daily basis, but you guys don't know it because I don't discuss it. I have a wall calendar that I use as a daily weather journal....good mindfulness exercise, too from a social work standpoint. I'm just not like Steve in that I don't have the ambition to dig up soundings for a P Cloudy day in May.

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina. Last three super el nino seasons: 1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard. 1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour. 2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard. I rest my case-

I don't need the inconvenience of a couple of inches messing with my commute a this stage. Not bitter....not complaining. It is what it is.

I think Steve would disagree. Either I'm whining about not getting enough snow incessantly, or I hate snow...which is it? lol

What you are referring to is called the "Delayed Oscillation" theory, and I have written about it. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/ Stronger ENSO events correlate more to the opposite ENSO state the following season due to the subsurface phenomena that drive ENSO, such as the Walker Cycle. This does not mean that we are screwed for several years following an intense el nino, but rather that a la nina is favored after a super el nino. 1983-1984 and 2016-2017 were decent snowfall la nina seasons immediately following intense el nino events.

I'll happily grab my ankles and take one for the team today. No interest in 3" of snow on a Monday, at this point of the season. #porkme.

Yea, right through your area. Frustrating season here, but it could have been worse....at least I'm not Jeff lol

Hunchie is like ORH....in a spot where its touch to catch a porking.

Its cool how each season picks a spot to run the train...even the crappy ones. Last season it was Hunchie, 2015 Scooter....

West and south has been better all season long, and that probably won't change, at this point.

Sounds reasonable. Good luck.

FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1 FEB 1

Yea, I got that in that one event. Tough luck for you....you'll be back in the saddle next year, most likely.