40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Part of me likes seeing some volatility in the seasonal composites because some of those early seasons maps don't necessarily scream "active" for our area, albeit cold. May not be the worst thing in the world to have the early cold break and take a swing at a phase change event.
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I feel like a have a pretty good idea in the aggregate....my sequencing may be off again, like last year. But I don't see any reason at all to think a ratter is en route, nor a blockbuster....although I think there is a greater shot at the latter.
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Well, 2001 and 2011 are two prime examples of cool ENSO seasons in which is did not happen....2005, as well, to a lesser extent. You can have the PAC jet wipe Canada clean of anomalous cold.
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Yea, there will probably be an ugly stretch, as there is in most seasons at our latitude.
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You also have to be careful because H5 can be deceiving....sometimes these orgasmic H5 looks don't end up great, and the more tepid looking charts really produce. As long as the source region is cold, then you can work with it.
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I was pretty close each of the past two la nina seasons......don't get me wrong, I have had some terrible outlooks, but those were el nino seasons. I've been pretty good with la nina.
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I think DJF is serviceable with a cold source region, but JFM is pretty rough.
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Yea, I have those...meant the single months from Wxbell. Thanks, though.
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Yea, hyperbole on my part to accentuate the point, but that is a pretty marginal -PNA IMO.
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December doesn't look that cold to me.....I think the coast/lower elevation could struggle some...
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Can anyone post January, Feb and March?
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A gradient look in November isn't very wintery for most highly populated areas.
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Agree. Some signs Novie could get mild...at least for a time.
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Not as amplified as Dec 2000 out west, sure, but that doesn't look like much of a -PNA to me. December 2000 was a monster PNA, so I agree in that respect, but its not December 2021, either. Its closer to 12/2000 than 12/2021.
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Man, this thread is always so depressing. Nothing like a paragraph or 8 from world renowned global economist Pickles to send you right into the bath tub with a toaster.
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That's been my my feeling all along. Maybe not too far from normal cold.....
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Looks just like December 2000:
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Yea, totally.
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I agree Judah is a better researcher than forecaster, but what I like about him is that he presents on social media as very humble and engaging....he is also a snow weenie, which guys like Fisher are not, and it irritates me. I am sure Judah has an ego, but he does a good job of not being condescending like so many big names are. Not arrogant at all and very responsive.
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Yea, believe it or not, a good portion of snowfall doesn't come during blizzards lol. We get a lot from "ugly" systems that actually represent a good portion of the yearly snowfall up here. The southwest flow events.
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Statistically speaking, precip is actually more correlated to snowfall than temps, generally speaking, once you get above about the latitude of NYC.
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I'd be quite alright with a repeat of that winter.
