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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Yes, but the more favorable regime has actually been expedited of late, since burgeoning into existence on guidance, not pushed back.
  2. Jeff is right...it, and the NAM suck....but the one thing you can usually hang your hat on is when they are aggressive with mid level warmth. They tend to pick up on that, while global guidance often underestimates the warm tongue.
  3. Its nice having the RGEM and NAM trend colder within 48hrs because say what you will about that guidance, but they are usually first to the party at advancing mid level warmth more liberally.
  4. My goal is 3"....my first map was a little aggressive, so will probably tone down.
  5. I think this is more realistic and probably close to reality...I can't see the border region being essentially shutout.
  6. Relief for me....for now. We've gone from the pike region flirting with danger, to me.
  7. I see what you mean about everything being a bit too far to the east when looping ensembles....
  8. I am fine with MJO 7...its form the tri state region and points south that shouldn't be.
  9. Even epic patterns can shit the bed.....you just can't lock anything. BTW, Feb 1969 shows you how it usually evens out lol
  10. I actually went out of my way to state in that write up that a KU magnitude event was not expected in December, but there was a modest shot in early January. This looks like a snowy pattern to me, but that doesn't have to mean a 12/23/97 or 12/14/92 deal.
  11. I tried to incorporate a range of possibilities with the ranges in that First Call map..the idea is to hone in more for the Final one. But if I'm being honest with myself, I felt it was too aggressive right after I released it.
  12. The majority of our snowfall comes in patterns that are not epic, as those type of patterns are anomalous for a reason.
  13. That's probably my fault for mentioning 2010-2011....all I meant was that this is the type of pattern that we had that season. However, Will mentioned the differences, mainly being that the RNA is immense this year, and perhaps the NAO doesn't make it as far west. Anyway, I clearly stated not to expect 60" in a month.
  14. I don't know why anyone locked in 8...that was always iffy. 7, yes.
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