40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Get us a thread, Tip.
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January 1996 wasn't too shabby, either
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Feb 1, 2021 wasn't too shabby, either.
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You mean like March 2018, October 2011, January 2011, Feb 2006 and March 2001?
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That may get me near normal this season.
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Fair enough. I haven't read the literature, so if that is the distinction that he made, then so be it.
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Yea, I noted that same subtle tendency....those are the higher end "hybrids" that I was alluding to...like Feb 2013, 1978 etc. Feb 1978 is indeed a hybrid, though many don't consider as such bc the s stream SW was so minor, but technically it is. I remember Will debated me on that before.
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God forbid you get your hair wet, though lol
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Yea, the mean is skewed by some solutions near Bermuda...same thing we saw with respect to the inland bomb, which cast the illusion that it looked good for the coast. In this case, its better than it appears via the mean.
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It also looks more like a Miller B on the EPS.
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Be sure to really log off because Kevin stalks....little bald brother is always watching.
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Have fun frolicking in the fields with -20 degree wind chills...I'd rather dodge puddles and be comfortable. Again, if I had a respectable snow pack, maybe I would feel differently.
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I consider a snower to be a plowable event....note this
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Your snower doesn't drop so much as an inch anywhere in SNE
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I didn't look. I went off of what he said, and I would agree with him that scattered snow showers do not constitute "a snower".
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Yea, we'll see...its been kicking Jeff's can on that.
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I think over the long run that the Euro is still the superior piece of guidance, but the difference is no longer as great.
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As someone who forecasted a PV split late in the season, you are falling into the Judah Cohen trap of being too reliant on it....its not the only element to the hemispheric weather pattern.
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I've never seen so much ball spiking over the euro capitulating to flurries over these two events lol
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The notion that Miller A and B cyclogenesis are two entirely binary concepts is so archaic....the reality of the matter is that: 1) The vast majority of events are some sort of hybrid to varying degrees. 2) Most of our best systems are hybrid that carry s stream juice with n stream reinvigoration on approach south of LI. That said, I would rather not see a system closed off before it gets to the mid atl, but I'm not so picky these days.
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Well, look....we aren't getting 2'+ out of a pure Miller A...but they can still work out, and we can't be picky right now. There is also time to modulate this....I doubt it closes off quite that far south and we could also get some n stream insert. Bottom line is don't sweat details at this juncture.
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Well, he would also acknowledge that its a long season.
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I know....after last week, I wouldn't be shocked, but would still bet against it at this time.
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I think the EURO is particularly struggling with this pattern....but in the grand scheme of things, its more that the GFS has closed the gap IMHO. But EURO is not as bad as it looks right now.
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I'd watch the GFS closely to see if it follows....its been good lately, and led the charge west with respect to last week's event.
