40/70 Benchmark

Maybe I will? Maybe I won't? Time will tell you? Perhaps we discover how many ways we can state the obvious without adding much value??

Piss off.

I expect some of this in throughout Feb.

Euro ejects that SW energy during the most useless time frame possible.

"stays" on brand....? Did I miss something?

Yes....every season I hilight one or two 2 week window(s) during which the risk of a KU caliber system is heightened...I chose 1/21 to 2/4 early last November as a potential phase-change event into warmer, RNA style regime.

Yea, this general idea is in accordance with my pre season timeline.

Yea, it happens to everyone who endeavors to out forth a long range forecast...happened to me in December. But you lose credibility when you refuse to own it.

You need to let it go, dude...take the "L". Nothing about January is very warm in the east.

Looks great

Tremendous consolation....phew.

Right...below average snowfall.

Yea, its an interesting read if ever you decide to just stop making things up. Then again, probably a better shot of 3" Sunday night

1-3" spot 4!!

It was playing beer pong with the Euro. Seriousoy guys...let it go-

Has and still looks like shit.

Cold & Dry First Half of January Likely on Tap First Chance for Significant Snowfall Possible Mid-Month It appeared last weekend as though there was a slight chance for a significant snow event this Sunday night into Monday, followed by a greater threat centered around January 11th, however, it now appears as though any major snowfall will be delayed until the second half of the month. Trough Axis Ultimately Proves Unfavorable for Major Snowfall Across the Region The potential system for this Sunday night and Monday was always a low percentage likelihood. This is due to the fact that the developing -NAO block over Greenland is preventing the timely exit of the storm system that provided the region with rainfall on New Year's Eve and into the early morning hours of New Year's Day. Frequently these blocked up patterns can lead to prolific storms along the east coast, but in this instance, the predecessor storm is so close that it not only prevents the approaching storm system from gaining sufficient latitude to greatly impact southern New England, but the flow around it shreds the follow up wave apart. Although it is not uncommon for guidance to extend the confluent flow around systems in these situations too far to the south, it is now exceedingly unlikely that any such error would be large enough to allow for anything other than light snow across southern most New England given the decreasing lead time. Thus while a major regional impact can be ruled out at this stage, accumulations of up to an inch or two over especially southwestern Connecticut cannot as of yet, as unlikely as that is to actually occur. In addition to the inauspicious positioning of the NAO block (from the perspective of a winter weather enthusiast) later this week, there are also nuances within the larger long wave pattern that are making a major winter storm next weekly more unlikely, as well. Major System Next Week Less Likely But Still Possible The larger potential outlined last weekend remains a viable possibility, but it now appears more dubious due to some nuances within the long wave pattern that have become more evident. Namely, there is an emergent strong consensus that the PNA ridge/eastern trough couplet will be too positively tilted to allow for major cyclogenesis quickly enough and close enough to the coast to allow for a major winter storm. However, unlikely the first threat, there is still time for this to change given the ample lead time between now and January 10th. One of the most likely ways that the storm prospects would grow again is if the energy over in the vicinity of Baja, Mexico were to eject quickly and increase the amplitude of the entire trough. Regardless of what happens next week, a cold pattern will remain anchored in place and it looks to grow more active as the NAO block relaxes on approach to the identified January 21-February 4 major east coast winter storm window. Stay tuned throughout the week for any updates-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/cold-dry-first-half-of-january-likely.html

I have commented many times on how much growth he has undergone as a poster....

11th will probably end up congrats Maritimes.

Not given up, but by hope for that is diminishing. ....starting think we looking towards mid-month. That trough axis is so positive...

Odds of a KU later this season are higher than you getting 3" Sunday night.

Absolutely. I can gripe with the best of them, as we all know....but I don't think we escape this season without printing another chapter in the KU book.....at least NE, anyway.

Maybe refrain from the animations this time? Shake up the mojo?

Well-that is the two week stretch I hilighted for KU potential back in November, but obviously it was looking hopeful that we could score something earlier in the month...but alas..