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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to me like it's a strong -WPO/RNA look....lots of cold around, but focused west...with a pretty neutral signal over most of the east, albeit a touch mild in NE. Def. a risky look as far as storm track with the RNA/flat Aleutian ridge.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tip (no pun intended) of the cap to you, John....I am too emotionally drained from the past few weeks to even look for long range threats yet. Kind of quasi-checked out while my orifices heal prior to the next violation.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perusing the latest modeled lapse rates with a 40oz of formula?
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, which is what I am banking on....maybe we keep whiffing and I hit my futility mark, but I'll bet against that. probably not this season, but the tide will turn at some point.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think there will be front enders, which 2018-2019 had plenty of. If things are timed right, some bonafide SWFEs, too.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I pretty much stopped posting in here and following once I knew the s stream would lag.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I certainly don't expect to hit March with single digits snowfall and probably not under 25-30".
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went +2 to +4 for the DM period, so banking on some warmer times in the second half of the season, but also somewhat snowier, too.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey @qg_omega, how is the +6 DJF looking??
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    -EPO keepa Canada cold allows said cold to dump imto the US....in. -PNA/+NAO pattern, it dumps WEST.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, not necessarily..all -EPO does is keep Canada cold, but has nothing to do with storm track. 2018-2019 is a great example of an unfavorable -EPO where the coast got screwed.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, 2008-2009....not 2007-2008.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think so....he has like 1.5", but averages like 15" less than I do.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can't imagine anyone is further below normal than I am at 2" on the season...maybe a tiny sliver just N of me in se NH?
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    People still tracking that?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did you actually look at the composite? Its the last 9 winter seasons and its terrible for east coast cold and snow.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agree.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    This looks prime for overrunning snow and major east coast winter storms...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is a defensive posture. Sorry. It just is-
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, care to present empirical evidence that RNA/+WPO/+EPO isn't hostile?? Here is the WPO correlation for starters...does this look favorable for NE cold &/or snow??
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    2008 did essentially the same thing...late-blooming Modoki.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    While I do think that there is some truth to this, I also believe that there is an element of projection at play here, too.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I am on record as having stated that if that global tendency doesn't shift by the end of the decade or shortly thereafter, then I will entertain that as a realistic possibility..but we aren't there yet.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I agree...all I am intimating, and he appears to have become defensive. All I am saying is that I don't think this most recent 9 year stretch is a great period of time to test that theory because the baseline pattern was so awful, anyway. I'm not saying that identical patterns wouldn't necessarily yield less overrunning than they did 70 years ago...they probably would. But we need to remain mindful overattribution.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
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