Increasing Likelihood of Intense Winter Storm Next Weekend
Closely Monitor Forecasts Throughout the Week & Plan Accordingly
Changing Data Complicates Forecast
Eastern Mass Weather asserted that late last week that it appeared as though the immense storm signal that was originally identified late last month would fail to materialize next weekend due to the extreme positive orientation of the long-wave pattern. The implication of this being that it was likely to remain cold and dry into mid month.
However, it was also explained that there remained an avenue to reintroduce the option for major storm potential should guidance alter the manner in which it was handling energy over the southwestern CONUS. This is precisely what has materialized this weekend.
Southern Stream Energy Now Poised to Join the Fray
During the day on Saturday, a definitive trend to eject more energy from the southern stream, beneath the PNA ridge near the west coast, out into the middle portion of the nation late in the week. Thus allowing it to phase with the energy parcel from northern stream component to the split flow spilling over top of the aforementioned west coast ridge.
Normally, a phasing system and a neutral tilting trough this far to the west would entail a risk for an inland track, which would mean rainfall for most of the region. However, in this instance, NAO blocking is going to pin this weekend's mid Atlantic snow storm in place just off of the Canadian Maritimes (in the general vicinity of 50* latitude and 50* longitude), which will act to essentially detour this new system underneath New England and slow it down rather dramatically.
Note the atmospheric "traffic jam" that is created by the negative NAO block-50/50 low diad, which the potentially major storm will encounter next weekend.
This would act to protract the effects of what may already be a very disruptive winter storm, which is the type of development that can mark the difference between a major impact and a truly historic one.
What could go "Wrong"
As ominous of a signal that exists with this potential, the fact remains that one week in the world of meteorology is essentially a lifetime and there are certainly avenues to avoid the realization of this storm potential. The first option is for the previously discussed southern stream energy to never eject out of the southwestern CONUS, which is what was favored until Saturday. However, this is growing more unlikely by the hour. The more likely path to avoid travel paralysis next weekend is for said energy to eject slowly enough to miss that northern stream parcel of energy, which would likely result an outcome similar to this weekend, in which the mid Atlantic experiences a moderate snow event and the northeast is left unscathed.
More updates to come this week as things may escalate quickly with the mainstream media-
