40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Main difference I see is that the low near NF is a bit further away on the GEM, which maybe allows for faster amplification of coastal.
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Triple ninja
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SouthWest FlowEvent.......its when the storm in the mid levels cuts west, causing winds aloft to scream southwest and advecting warmer air ne. But when when there is confluence and cold air in place, the surface low is forced to redevelop off to the se and the warm air advection causes snowfall. There tends to be a transition to sleet for many spots due to mid level warmth
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Not directed at anyone in particular, but I recall a few posts to the effect of "nothing else shows it", blah, blah.....I mean, a 2' blizzard....unlikely, but a plowable snowfall for a portion of the region is a totally viable outcome. I'm guilty of it a lot, too, but its tough to sometimes not view a solution through a biased lens due to the reputation of the model.....all else equal, its not a huge leap of faith that an exiting coastal trends less progressive in the face of a large block.
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I think he was probably basing that off of a presumed unfavorable storm track....just broad-brushing the longer term.
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Yea, we are in the timeframe now where any warmups would be shorter term due to wave-breaking from unfavorable tracks, rather than a hostile overall longwave pattern. The latter is done for at least about a month.
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I don't think its done trending. Folks brushed myself and a few others off when we gave some credence to the CMC yesterday (not to that degree), but this is what happens with blocks....you get faster corrections with shorter lead times.
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Hopefully we get you ALL IN on that...sure fire way to heavy snow.
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I would be surprised if its a positive NAO month, but I do agree that it will be a transition month. Watch March, too.
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To what degree? Maybe not another block that intense, but I think we see some neg NAO in January.
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Must be initialization issues due to data sparcity because the Jay I know has a couple of ridge nodes dangling from his ensemble member.
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It can be rather enjoyable to see you at the gtg on Saturday, but the wife block may shear out your shortwave.
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I like it with snow, but I have no use for that with cracked earth underfoot.
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+PNA January...take it to the bank. Smoke that. Watch and wait.
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Agree on that...been stressing that all along. But RNA with split flow -EPO and neg NAO is an absolutely delicious pattern for us, nonetheless.
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This is a very fluid situation with respect to everything.
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Prayers answered....I'm heavily invested in Rangley
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PNA will go positive in January.
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Would I ever go off...
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I knew I should have got the blog out today...had a hunch, but don't wanna jump gun in a mess of a pattern.
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Of course it finds away to pork here lol But I feel like this is a provisional solution.
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We continue to nod
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I'd just assume extract my toe nails by prancing through battery acid.
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Oh God, what fun....OES flurry CJ-Rainer-Upslope...rinse, repeat Heaven
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I like being held to forecasts weeks in advance...its fun...at least when it's just a toy rather than a livelihood.
