40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Technically, yea. The N stream phases into the back side of the trough, which tilts it negative and slings the s stream SW up the coast. -
Aside from some weenie PTSD derived superstition about when to start threads....
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Nothing wrong with your original post, frustration not withstanding. It was actually some stellar, spot on analysis.
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I would say literally like 8/10 times phasing is over modeled, question is by how much.
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I agree wholesale with this.
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The bottom line is that whenever it feels as though a positive development is emerging with respect to this system, wait for the catch.
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Don't worry be ginxy
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@White Gorilladisagrees
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Yea, okay..agree....but I think 12" is pushing it. That high would need to trend better fast BC I doubt we wil see the necessary mid level changes to drive those amounts.
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I think that is a reasonable ceiling for my area.
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LOL Load Blown Southwest...just a raunchy vernacular for occlusion.
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Believe me, if I saw something that changed my mind, I would derobe....hell, I was pretty optimistic as recently as last night, but I think we are running out of time to recapture the potential that this system once possesed for this area
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I could easily see the SLP end up near the upper cape, but that doesn't change the fact that the mechanics to drive a very heavy snowfall are just not present, barring major wholesale changes that seem very unlikely at this lead. Not trying to be a debbie, but that is how I see it...and yes, my frustration with this season is oozing out into my posts.
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Hopefully the deformation sets up over WMontpelier with a sharp cutoff to the east.
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No issue with this at all...sounds reasonable. I just sold the big solutions.
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That may help with the track and confluence, but you still have things occluding pretty far west. It would help, but its not a silver bullet.
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Just post the one piece of guidance that looks favorable, its the new cooler.
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We'll see what happens. Maybe I am wrong, but I just see too many red flags at too little of a lead time to forecast big snows.
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If I get 1'+ out of this, I will change my screen name to lips n hips.
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Models can tell you bed time stories about excessive amounts of snowfall east of mid level centers all they want, it doesn't alter reality.
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Lets get H5 to close off in Houston next time, to make for more fun forecasts. You guys mock me about LBSW, but the number one way to c0ck block your self from a biggie is having H5 close off a decade before it reaches you....it just introduces an orgy of limiting factors.
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Yea, too many issues....I have learned to let ones like this go a far as expectations. When you need a venn diagram to map out your path to heavy snow, its probably best to not pin your expectations to big amounts. "We need this lobe to trend weaker, this one stronger so that these phase later, and tracks east, and that occludes slower"...blah, I'd rather sit on a piranha.
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When is the next lip and hips next event? 1/23? I'm over this-
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I salute you......Fiyayyyaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!
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5-10"? No one in MA, CT, RI sees a foot.
