40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I totally buy that what is likely ENSO related background forcing leading this pattern of persistence both with respect to sensible weather results, and model error, however, at some point that standing wave will in fact decay. La nina is eroding both from a SST standpoint and MEI (ocean-atmosphere coupling) and I think it was Scott already posted evidence that the cool ENSO standing wave had relented. Persist at your own peril.
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I'm sure this was lined up in @snowman19's tweet regurgitation queue. ..tip of his tongue.
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Bc you don't need a degree to post on the weather side. And I'm not preventing him from speaking for himself...merely adding my opinion.
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He's a hobbyist and winter sports enthusiast, like alot of us. He's never claimed any met creds.
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I'm not sure the MJO has much to do with it....if anything, aside from being in a phase conducive to propagation of the strat warming (not phase 8). Not sure it even gets to phase 8 TBH. I don't expect much of any PNA ridging.
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I'd be absolutely stunned if we went back well above normal to begin March. But we'll see...I originally thought that way about early January, too. I think there is more evidence to suggest otherwise, this time. We'll see.
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I have had two of those in mind...Dec 2007 and warmer version of Jan/Feb '94 that acts as a segue into more blocky regime.
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Correct!!!!
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Does the 50mb PV realize the PNA is negative? Maybe we can send a screenshot of a Pacific Homvoller diagram from a 38yo virgin in Tennessee?
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You had me at rectal glue...
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Not a matter of "if" this year...mistake.
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You tried to warn him...he porked.
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I honestly still think I could hit the low end of my 60-70" forecast range IMBY. Would need some luck, of course...but possible if things break right. Don't get me wrong, I'm not holding my breath, but...
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93-94 type pattern.
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Lol 1956
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It showed a huge snow event yesterday at 18z, and I pointed out how it was par for the 18z course.
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40-50% chance of above normal....oh nooooo
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Honestly, I just like it bc its faster to type than -PNA.
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Not shocked.
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You realize that this is a New England thread, right?
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I'm also not sure what the RNA has to do with the SSW...they aren't mutually exclusive. Again, March 2018 was RNA...as was many of SNE's most prolific patterns.
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He is one of the ones in CT with like 5" on the season who has become immune to logic as means of self preservation.
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You must have missed this one.
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I don't like this SSW as much as that one...JMO. I also think that the RNA will be more prevalent.
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My point is, we would replicate 1956 synoptically speaking and probably end up with less snowfall...so yea, from strictly a snowfall standpoint, its probably wise to take the under on March 1956...that said, soon or later we are going to stop paying for 2025 and that luck with change. More likely next December, but possibly next month.
