So many people overlook that propagation aspect, which really is the smoking gun in the whole SSW ordeal....I mean, who cares if it gets toasty up at 60K if it doesn't make it down to where the weather synoptically materializes in the troposphere.
As far as this season goes, I am resigned to failure on that aspect of my work this past fall.
Yea, coastal Jersey down to Delmarva has had a flukey good year....that same band goes right up through Steve over to Bret. Always fun seeing those little seasonal nuances, it's just more enjoyable when I'm not on the outside looking in lol
Yea, I said earlier...with that PAC look, not sure we would want an NAO block this far north. I mean, I guess we could still get porked by a stray lobe, but its tougher...
This I agree with.....but I do not envision a PD 1, Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 deal, where it gets shunted south of us. Believe me, the way that this winter has gone for me, I would call for that at least excuse imaginable...but I just do not see that.
I think the PV would have to drop really far to the south for that, which would be difficult given how potent it is right now....this is entirely Pacific driven. I don't see this as a suppression issue for SNE.