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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's how I have been envisioning late Feb/March. Gradient to blocky...
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its on... just a guess. Ride gradient for awhile until the block forms in March.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's been obvious for awhile. I highlighted the 20-23rd window as the next viable threat in my Thursday night blog....phase change signal.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    As much as I think that's a viable outcome, I need to see consistency, especially from the main runs..18z always does that shit. Don't be shocked to see 00z less enthusiastic.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sell PNA, buy NAO.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...agreed on all accounts.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    -NAO is easier to snow then +NAO...especially when you have energy constantly dumping out west.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one expects the Pacific to change. There is a shot that the arctic does.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    The current state of Nino 1.2 seldom means much with respect to the longer term outlook because it's so unstable. But if anything, I like that its opposite of 2025 because that was the most powerful cannonical el nino in record. I want a modoki.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    3/10/56
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    11-12 was la nina, not neutral.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, and 86-87
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect this to be as consistently cold.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    JB does that for clicks....the other dude is a hack.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's possible, but unlikely...best case scenario. March '18 was a great example of a productive RNA/NAO pattern.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm watching that 20-23 window for some sort of phase change event.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is a more valid concern than suppression should a neg NAO block develop in tandem with the persistent RNA pattern is deconstructive interference from a shearing flow, but cross that bridge...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    RNA/-NAO is not a mid atl pattern. Not saying they won't see some snow, but it's not the type of pattern in which I generally fear suppression.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, this season has made many look bad.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its tough to remind people of this during the winter of Murphy's law, but RNA/-NAO can be glorious when the energy doesn't dig to baja. Keep rifling PAC waves into a block. I do agree that if we are spinning our wheels first week of March, then its over.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have never expected it until March...transition is last week of Feb. Guidance is often slow to respond to the strat stuff even when it works out.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was there.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That would be a reapest of my futility season of 1979-80.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you read my last blog update, RNA is here to stay. That is on par with 1956 analog. I was right about the break from it in January, but unfortunately is was heavily west-based.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have said before that I would travel to MHT or CON, but there wasn't much interest bc its far for the CT peeps.
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