40/70 Benchmark

Man, for someone who has queefed historic snowfalls over the past several years of regional despair, you sure are one miserable SOB.

Yea, keep the plows on, Phil.

If someone put a gun to my head right snow, I would say that the cold will not be overly impressive late this month into March, aside from perhaps another glancing blow....and that March will be the snowiest month overall for SNE (low bar), but not like March 2018.

What I had actually called for back in November was for a late season PV disruption that would fall short of official SSW criteria (wind reversal), but would still provide a fairly wintry ending.

I can easily see how this goes either way, which is of zero help, forecast wise. But what I do know is that it is happening and is unlikely to allow futility for anyone...at least in New England, anyway.

That is part of why January was such an epic disaster, despite the fact that it was uber active and SNE snowfall is generally more highly correlated to precip, than temps. Normally, that would have still been a decent to very good month for snowfall, but all of the cold got locked into Siberia and the PNA was constantly west based, which funneled any morsel of cold that managed to sneak onto this side of the globe into the west.

I will say...this is happening. Guidance is locked and loaded on that....how exactly it manifests will dictate whether we ultimately give a flying flake and that is TBD. Should at least be some modicum of validation with respect to the late season portion of my outlook, though. Kind of like how I got the very active January right. That is what is frustrating about seasonal outlooks....you can get important details right, but the sensible result can still turn the forecast to doo doo because either you missed something else, or it didn't quite have the impact you expected. What a mine field.

Yea, agreed.

One thing I am not in love with it that the disruption with the PV seems to send it mostly onto the other side of the globe again.

I think sometimes the emoji reactions are more geared towards the image, rather than the poster.

Cooler version, too. I'll take the under on +8.

May 2009 was brutal....very cool summer.

Guidance is slow to reflect that at H5...not surprising.

Makes sense.

Thanks, bud...he is why I am up right now haha. Wife not up to the night shift baby duty yet.

Yea, I never saw the appeal with the Super Bowl crap.

I'm at the point where anything is gravy....while I still think there is some potential, I am done talking it up and holding my breath. My expectations are virtually non existent.

Sneaky elevation, too.

I never touched that. Done blogging about rain and Cirrus...so exhausted by this season.

And December could have easily produced 30" instead of next to nothing. Point is that there is a reason why we never get under 20" in a season.

I think it's a little of both...I agree that since nobody cares if said changes didn't result in snow in their BY, that there is an element of resistance to the reality that the pattern did in fact change. However, there has definitely been a trend for guidance to be initally overzealous with the change in the longer range, which exacerbates the first issue due to frustration.

At this latitude, you get 20-25" by default every season...that was it.

I have looked at guidance maybe a handful of times all season and not since the snow in January.

Kind of a 1979-80 vibe, which is my futility record.

So sorry, Gerry. Hope she heals well.