40/70 Benchmark

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/mainly-rain-likely-thursday-into-early.html

Well, it depends on perspective....obviously 2001 was worse form a winter pattern standpoint.

I adore the set up day 50.

Tenor of the season, too.

But it nailed the pre XMAS eve disaster....of course.

Its just the NAM that's really warm, then.

Yea, assuming the model was right, then there would be more snowfall further south.

Too warm in the low levels.

I was waaay too cocky about March back in 2018 and truth be told, I was just lucky that it actually worked out. It wasn't any stroke of genius. The rationale and work was valid, but I exuded far more confidence than was warranted. I learned not to do that really fast during the next two seasons, after falling flat on my face. All I will say here is that there is a path to redemption for this season, increasing March sun angle butt-hurt not withstanding.

You know where I stand on next year...no secret, there.

I mean, my forecast charts imply a big March...but don't get me wrong....I can see it going either way. I totally get how precarious the strat stuff is and this season could easily be another 2001-2002. I don't mean to impugn the efforts of those who dissent to the big March idea....totally possible.

Its 2001-2002...until its not-

I mentioned that analog to you back a few weeks ago....it was one of my top analogs and December evolved very similarly. January has been much different, admittedly. See, I don't think a 40" month is that big of a stretch. People like to toss around CC....one consequence of that that I think has been very apparent is the increasing tendency for the atmosphere to enter into really dichotomous "feast or famine" type of time intervals as it pertains to snowfall. You deal that PV a death blow....let that marinade for a month until the wave lengths begin shortening and it gets interesting really fast.

I think its totally possible....other than that, this is 2001-2002-lite.

Well....say 9" in early February with a 45" March....54" is not a rat. Its a continuation of my last several uninspiring seasons. Say we run into a another 6" of fluke in Febuary.....near normal-

I agree with the strat caveat applied.....if we have a February 2018 redux ongoing at the highest levels, then I still won't commit to a rat.

Denying CC is one thing, but attributing it to every subpar season is another entirely.

No, I'm with you....its no one's error or fault. Just saying. I am still on the "happy ending" train, but totally get the pessimism.

Tough to stay optimistic....we've been internet dating for 2 months and are left with a closet full of day 11 blow up dolls.

Yes.

EURO is similar to 06z NAM, which was fine....but my money is on the 12z NAM warmer sceanrio. Crap antecedent.....850 low dropping se from NYS through SNH. Yuck.

NAM and EURO are lock-in-step in taking the decaying H85 low through s NH....not a good way to run a snow event for SNE.

Yep....go with the NAM. Sell much accumulation even for my area.

You are lumping in all strong el nino events, which is unwise. Not much difference between 1.5 ONI and 1.7. All of those el nino events were between 1.2 and 1.8ONI. This isn't going to be a 2015 or 1997 intensity el nino.

So, I'm not sure where you get 30" for next year, but its moot, at this point.