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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just saying the same thing in the main forum thread...hadn't read this lol I didn't cite that source? Shit...I usually do. A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season? » Severe Weather Europe (severe-weather.eu)
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I couldn't care any less about what the Canadian has over the polar domain for winter at this lead time....has about as much value to me as 99.9% of the posts in OT.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Assuming el nino is not heavily east biased, extra tropical influences on the polar domain will also be of the utmost importance. If we can muster up some intense episodes of blocking like we did this past season, then we should be okay. 1972-1973 was void of that, and 1957-1958 was defintely not....so again, this tells me that the character of el nino, as depicted on the Canadian, is not prohibitive to the development of high latitude blocking during the ensuing cold season.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It looks to be like the length of these decadal -PDO cycles is usually anywhere from about 5-10 years. And we look to have begun this one in about 2017, so while it is possible we are about ready to end it, its more likely that we have a couple of years left statistically speaking. That said, a shift to warm ENSO is ordinarily the impetus for change. Whether or not this one flips it is likely the difference between a 1957-1958 type of evolution, or a 1972-1973.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Best match all around is probably 1972-1973, but the fact that 1957-1958 is similar in the ENSO region confirms my suspicion that that ENSO el nino orientation, as depicted is not a death knell in and of itself...just need to hope the Pacific gets a little better than that model suggests.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Canadian kind of resembles 1957 in the ENSO region, but the PDO doensn't look as high.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Candian looks like a basin-wide event to me...I definitely would not call it a modoki, but not heavily east based, either....slight eastern lean, but that doesn't look like a death knell-non-starter to me.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Quite a dichotomy evident amongst those 6 winters....3 great ones for the NE, and 3 terds.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with high-end mod to strong, but not uber-strong. That has been my thought.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Since the 2014-2015 unicorn, been three consecutive mild and well below average snowfall warm ENSO events for my area, if you want to talk about being "due"...warm ENSO is normally the east coast's bread and butter.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    2006-2007 was east based....we also had an uber event in 2015.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    50.5
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is my point.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet on 60 in April every time over a 2-3' blizzard in winter.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    My area may remain mired in the pork.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was about to post, its still just 40.6 at my pad.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I think....it would cause it to mimic cool ENSO in some respects because both favor lower heights to the north.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its just about impossible to get a seasonal neg AO/NAO with a healthy east-based el nino. This is why orientation is so crucial because it is that which dictates the nature of the convective forcing that sets the Hadley/Rosby wave train in the mid latitudes. Now, if ENSO were to remain meager, then that is different....but I don't expect that.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    The depth of the troughing is a bit exaggerated due to greater baseline ambient heights 50 years later, but it still sucks against 1951-2010 climo.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We need it to shift to at least centered around 140-150W by about November/December.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Look familiar out west?
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO will definitely be higher...it has to...but how much? The fear is a 1972-1973 type of outcome, where the PDO remains negative and a higher end el nino is biased east.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mean is probably about 1.8.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I could def. see basin wide, but I wouldn't be surprised to ultimately see a western tilt, whether or not its a true modoki or not. We'll see....just conjecture at this point. I won't really begin looking at it until the summer.
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