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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Yea, it has to intensify some, or else it peaks as weak and I do think it sneaks into moderate territory.
  2. Wind won't be the story with this one.
  3. Yea, this is why I was saying the further west it goes, the weaker the LF. N gulf coast will primarily bring hydro issues.
  4. I still say you want this in faster, and further south if you want an intense LF. I suspect a N GOM collapser if not.
  5. Exactly. If Fiona had hit us, it would have rivaled '38.
  6. I believe so...not to mention '38 struck at a significantly further south latitude.
  7. I think the main difference was that this didn't move nearly as fast as '38, which allowed for the drop to relatively modest wind intensity on approach.
  8. My early impression is that '38 was significantly worse, though this was a strong hit.
  9. The whole reason why tropical systems are usually a PIA is because the tropics are governed by predominately meager steering influences, and then timing the precise interaction with the westerlies is a whole other headache. Once the westerlies pick them up, its a mail-in forecast.
  10. The GFS is a good example of why the ultimate landfall intensity is a real question.....the fact that it may interact significantly with that mid latitude trough prior to LF gives me pause. Its going to need to veer in fast and south to be intense.
  11. Once they get picked up by a trough, its a pretty easy forecast.
  12. Totally...no argument. But like I said, the warning system is no comparison today, obviously...which helps mitigate death.
  13. You look at that time stamp, and expect to see 320 from the GFS...but 18 on the EURO? Surreal...
  14. Totally, except they will be much more prepared.
  15. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/fledgling-caribbean-tropical-system.html First Call on Monday
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