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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the strongest la ninas in history? I don't agree with that at all.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it was Hurricane Danny that came right into Mobile Bay in July of 1997...only a cat 1, but was a decent little event.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    My bad, complete "whoosh" on my part.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This honestly isn't directed at anyone in particular, but as a general rule, I wish there was less twitter regurgitation and more independent critical thinking. Its brutal.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way. Do me a favor and quote me come December.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyway, I'll revisit this later in the season and have some quoting to do.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course there is some subsurface cold...its a la nina. But the fact of the matter is that the SURFACE has temporarily plateaued. Is it done strengthening? Highly unlikely given the calendar, but I'm not sure you or he realize how difficult it will be to peak at a strong ONI....again, NOT weekly....but ONI. And not all of that subsurface cold will upwell to the surface.....we've been hearing about these easterly trades for weeks causing upwelling, yet the surface just warmed rather significantly.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, notice the past tense, as in restrengthened. See, this is a perfect example of why you draw the ire of some posters....you just aren't very objective because you like to cherry pick data as part of an incessant, passive aggressive assault against winter enthusiasts.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It does....depends on the season. Sure, it doesn't radiate as well at night anymore, but lets not get carried away. Falls have been very changeable...agreed.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Going to be some big coastals, too.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    No tweets mentioning the weakening of la nina? 17AUG2022 20.1-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.7-1.2 27.7-1.0 24AUG2022 20.3-0.5 24.5-0.4 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.8
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use Twitter for two things: 1) Later in fall season I do pull a lot of useful info to use in the winter outlook. 2) Reports to Box, usually during winter.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    2018-2019 was a page right out of the 1980s playbook. It had plenty of the ingredients needed to be a good season, but the lack of NAO and absence of fortuitous timing killed us. We just needed a little help with some better timing to couple an EPO cold dump with a storm, but we just couldn't do it. You need some luck without an NAO and we just didn't have it.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The cold will probably load west of us again most of the time, but the question becomes how much resistance is it met with trying to bleed s and e. Again, good problem to have because we should have the source. We both know it can be worse.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....just causing a stir amongst the weenies getting carried away with ENSO....the usual shit. We go through this phase every year....the point of the fall where some master of the universe on twitter posts some esoteric chart with wind anomalies, and has everyone expecting the strongest la nina/el nino on record.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I note that all ENSO zones are up fairly appreciably this week......maybe a respite from the usual cavalry of pro ENSO Eric Webb/Ben Knoll tweets? 17AUG2022 20.1-0.8 24.3-0.8 25.7-1.2 27.7-1.0 24AUG2022 20.3-0.5 24.5-0.4 25.8-0.9 27.8-0.8
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    We wait for rubber bands to snap.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    ASH has done better than I have this summer lol. It will flip, man....maybe one more subpar year here, but I promise its about over.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea...so done with this shit. We gotta get you out plowing, Phil.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I missed that...was in Uganda, but it seemed impressive. It had actually tore the cover off of my central AC piping outside. Anything that causes any type of wind damage in my neck of the woods gets noticed....up there with the Feb 2010 wind event.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    That was posted in the mid atl forum....not sure how a cold N HEM strat correlates to a warm N HEM strat....I'd take that one with a grain of salt, as it doesn't seem to be peer reviewed.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I used a Springer piece to in my research for last year's outlook. He has some good stuff.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    You must love that lol
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    This was raindance's take: I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons.
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