40/70 Benchmark

I feel like using ENSO as a general framework to begin with gives you just about as good a shot of any other arbitrary plethora of indicators.

Yea, it's not absolute, but for the most part the mean composite of each season was what one would expect....especially with respect to the more poleward Aleutian ridge for east-based data set. Last season was a prime example....well behaved.

Whoosh, Vhoooom, bam

Go look at the composite from my outlook last season. There were certainly discernible differences by structure and intensity of ENSO....temp, precip, vertical velocity (forcing) and H5.

69 is certainly COC......k

Yea, hopefully I get some positive regression this cold season....

That map is lethally accurate...I'm in that minimum sliver with 2.18" for July and August.

.77" on the month.

.12"

I think that MEI is really going to begin responding to some changes that have been set in motion over the next few months, but that remains to be seen. I am just under the impression that the ocean is going to lag the atmosphere a bit this season, and what plays out in terms of weather may not be entirely representative of a prototypical la nina. But I don't blame you for not buying into that..its a bit of a leap.

Man, this is right in my wheelhouse...one last thing I'll add for tonight is that I also feel like binning the respective subgroups la Nina's by intensity is too much finite detail that exacerbates the sample size issue. You can list omit the seasons that are awful intensity marches from your final forecast composite and/or take measures accentuate the better marches, like doubling them up in the final composite, etc. Binning them by intensity and structure singularly is enough...IOW, have weak, mod, strong, modoki, central-basin wide (hybrid) and east based composites...you don't need weak east based, mod east based, etc...you can just factor those details into your final forecast. The cool thing about seasonal forecasts is that they are an art with an inherent level of subjectivity, which is a real paradox given that weather is a science. The data is the only element of the entire process that is objective because the interpretation, application format and presentation are not. The forecaster is the artist, and his/her brush is a methodology that is unique to him/her. It is a tool that has been honed, refined and individualized over time ro be applied to a hemispheric canvass of sorts. It's the synthesis of a plethora of variables that is applied and then expressed through your very own lens. And it is for that reason that it is the ultimate form of self expression and a real oasis of creativity within a see of science. This is why I have taken to it because I hate science, but I like to express myself through writing and this couples that with my winter obsession.

Well, they are more of a sure thing the further south you go....but I think the key for you guys is have some combo of an east based, weak, neg polar indexes, and some periods of PNA. 1995 had all of these, plus a beast STJ, which is why it was an orgie. I should mention that the bottom line is you need Canada cold to have a shot...no source, no chance. This is why 2011-2012 was such a train wreck.

I'll have to look at this more closely when I have more time, but just a couple of notes. 1 ENSO is an important piece of the puzzle and a good foundational concept from which to build an outlook, but nothing should be considered as operating within a vacuum....and as far as sample size goes, that is an issue with respect to everything. I think the structure of ENSO is too important to disregard due to inadequate sample size...now, maybe an argument can be made to simple bin them by east and west based, as opposed to central, as well? But what I will say is that I consider central based events as basin wide bc its pretty difficult to have a central based event not be basin wide...and attempting ro distinguish between central based and basin wide definitely harkens back to your point with respect to finite details and sample sizes. 2) I use some discretion as far as strength designation....for instance if two el nino events both have a peak ONI of +1.5, but one has an MEI of 1.2 and the other 2, I am listing the 1.2 MEI as moderate and 2 as strong. The intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is a very relevent and strong proxy for ENSO peak strength designation.

Nothing is a sure hand in weather, NVM seasonal forecasting...the moment that you feel otherwise is when you need to re evaluate.

Fair enough. True you have not explicitly said this, but some of your posts seem to insinuate as much. You think the Pacific will be hostile, and everything on the planet supports ++++NAO, so what in the world are we left to infer?

Even up here, near the Mass/NH border, I only mustered 2.75" this past December. It was brutal.

Like I said, jabs like this here and there are common place through mid September....doesn't mean the back isn't bending.

I expect that to be kind of theme throughout the cold season...been saying that.

Yea, the active stretch started with Andrew and kicked into overdrive in 1995, so we are about due.

We've kept all of last season's heat, and lost the active tropics....miserable summer meteorologically speaking.

I just think we need to keep it real....do things look great for the mid Atlantic this winter? No; he's right about that. But lets not get carried away with la nina and imply that there is very little chance of any snow or appreciable cold. Right now, there is plenty of evidence that that will not be the case.

The building codes are better, so we won't see the volume of homes rendered uninhabitable like we did during Andrew, but the damage potential is still greater due to the higher population.

We have at most another two weeks of summer left.....I don't need to look at long range charts to tell you that. Just like we can't have sustained winter beyond mid March. First two weeks of the month is fair game.

I have a friend from grad school is from Pakistan...hopefully her family is okay over there.

No chance we have another la nina next season.