40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I am beginning to grow kind of conflicted because I am not buying all of what my sensible analogs are selling, despite how well they have worked this fall. I think I am going to modify them at certain points of the season by stressing analogs that I feel as though the sensible result will most closely resemble.
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Lets get that RNA out of here faster than Judge leaving the Bronx this winter.
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Yes, great post. It will be nothing like last December...let me be clear on that.
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Depends how negative, and also how stretched the PV is and in which direction.....these are the nuances that make ostensibly comparable analogs have relatively drastically different sensible weather impacts. I am still very early on and haven't really looked at the pattern much yet, so keep that in mind.
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This isn't to say a torch...or "sell December"....not what I mean. It can still snow, but I just don't expect an icebox. I think we will need the NAO to help.
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Agree.
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I don't doubt a break early in the month, but I think the -PNA will keep the real cold in check throughout December.
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Almost as fast the hype about the intensifying la nina. I mention the SAI, but I certainly do not base my entire forecast off of it.
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Yea, I don't think December will be frigid, but it should be good enough for at least a parts of the area.
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Yea, its frustrating for me because its just kept trending warmer....my Novie composite initially looked great last week. I need the warmth centered in the N plains for November. Something tells me the change will get pushed back a decent amount, too.
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The month as a whole?
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Gotta be kidding....I just smashed a mosquito in my house.
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.19" today
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Who is LL?
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I think it will be a decent pattern, but it won't be perfect....some areas may struggle in December.
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For me, writing these always poses an inherent risk of relapse, sprinkled with a moderate chance of divorce and unemployment.
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Beer.
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Officially writing this year's installment now that all of the past verification stats are up to date....goal is to issue at the end of next week, in time for winter weather awareness week.
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Helpful link if you guys want MJO composites depending on time of year: MJO Tables - MeteoNetwork Finding analogs: MJO (jma.go.jp)
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Agree on somewhere in between, which admittedly isn't saying much.
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I never bought into the cold fall idea.
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What a couple of nasty guys...any hopes of attracting Marny Stainer to the board are likely gone.
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My Winter Outlook for 2022-23
40/70 Benchmark replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Similar to 2021 with the big February in the east... -
No, the PNA took over and we rocked into early Feb.
