40/70 Benchmark

October does look pretty warm, but yea....still a ways off.

I mean, we all get it....we have known that the QBO was going to be westerly for many, many, many months. I just won't understand why you choose a tweet reminding us all of the westerly QBO that adds so little value to the discussion as 1 of your 5 daily posts. While its not at all wrong, it just doesn't make very much sense to me. Anyway, I don't think the QBO holds a ton of weight....at least as we understand it. You look back throughout history, any there are numerous examples, such as just last season, when the behavior of the polar domain was inconsistent with what one would expect using the QBO state as a forecasting tool. I tend to use it as more of "tie-breaker" factor...like, if I am torn on the AO/NAO and QBO is westerly, sure....lean +. We all know its westerly/+.....have known for months, and its not that big of a deal, anyway.

Perfect...63. #wetake

Ironic that the acronym for the program is "SAI" lol

One down, four to go....

I'm willing to bet that you have posted about the QBO much more this fall than you did last fall.

Yea, same.

Oh, cool

The way things are going for me, it will be a season of huggers that are great from you points west.

This storm was never interesting to me. I maybe in the minority, but a major impact on the mainland US never had much of a chance.

It's on topic....its discussion about ENSO.

No argument on the close part.

I understand that it's probably close. I'm not trying to imply that it isn't. I think the main reason that it's close is due to the fact that strong el nino events can be more hostile than strong la nina. However, weaker el nino events are better and that isn't debatable. I'll crunch the numbers for KBOS sometime this week.

Yea, I don't buy that. Quite certain el nino is snowier here. The vast majority of Boston's snowiest seasons are el nino, save for 1995-1996 and 2010-2011.

Endless summer.

Hit 39.0 this AM 41.2 yesterday

Winds back up to 60mph....AWT Shear should pick up again later Saturday.

Not historically, but it's been a rough several years.

There is a sliver of a bit lighter shear on the analysis, but it may admittedly be irrelevant. Its not a huge deal...

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/tropical-storm-fiona-represents-first.html

Believe me, I desperately want interesting weather as much as any of us, but I can feign interest in this...it is what it is. No offense to those deeply interested in waves or meager tropical threats...its a weather forum. Have at it and to each their own.

Its a catch 22....if it entrains more dry air once n of the islands, it intensifies more slowly, and threatens the se as a more meager system...if it ingests less dry air, it goes to town and gives ginxy and pickles their wave orgy. This is why major impactor is exceedingly unlikely.

I think it has until tomorrow to ramp up some, but it should struggle again as it bypasses PR.

I'm just blogging right now and one of my slides is actually to illustrate that small window for some reorganization over the next 12-24 hours or so before it gets a bit more hostile again INVOF greater Antilles. Agree.

Yep. This is why I was telling people not to get wrapped up in watching how close it passes to the NE...unless you are interested in waves, then that is legit.