40/70 Benchmark

At least this will be one season in which I won't have to deal with him passively aggressively insinuating that I copied his forecast.

Down to 35.1 last night.

My birthday is on the 16th and I'm not sure when the family will be getting together, which is the only reason I suggested end of the month.

Normally I'd drop in that thread to compliment his work and try to spark some discussion, but I'm just done. It's a lost cause.

Low of 30.6

31.3

First frost forming on the deck rails....32.9

How about Saturday 11/26, the Saturday after Tday?

Of course, I start in last place....make sense.

Its like that scene from Tommy Boy, when he explains how he gets too excited and kills the sale/deal...that is the met community with respect to new seasonal forecasting tools like the SAI. lol

Society today is so geared towards instant gratification, which fuels this incessant crusade for that "silver bullet" with respect to seasonal forecasting that just doesn't exist. Its a puzzle and you try to gather as much info in order to properly fit as many pieces as you can in order to provide the clearest and most accurate picture.

I'm really not impressed with him. He's been touting a strong la nina all fall...seems to be fond of clicks and follows.

I will use it as kind of an aside, ancillary tool, like the QBO. For instance, here is how I incorporated it last season: While it is clear that the polar vortex should not be overly consolidated early on in the season, a major disruption is far from imminent, and in fact, quite unlikely any time in the near future. Climatology dictates that any early season warming of the polar stratosphere is relatively unlikely to propagate downward and result in a severe disruption of the vortex. There are also a couple of notable metrics that imply that the vortex should endure any early assaults. According to research conducted by Dr. Judah Cohen, the Eurasian Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and the Snow Advance Index (SAI), which are both measures of the snow build up in Eurasia, are positively correlated to subsequent disregulation of the vortex. This season, the SCE is merely near normal and below that of many recent seasons. According to Cohen, the Snow Advance Index (SAI) is a paltry -1.4, both of which are suggestive that any major disruption of the polar vortex will occur later in the season rather than sooner. Thus its likely that any perturbations in the near future that aid in a wintery onset to the season are likely to be followed by a recovery and re-consolidation of the vortex as we approach the new year. However, there are mixed signals from Eurasia in the sense that during the month of October, a Eurasian snowfall dipole materialized that has been linked to a weaker polar vortex during the winter. Courtesy of Judah Cohen Although the piece also implies that such a phenomenon needs to be sustained throughout the month of November in order for the correlation to be viable, so this is something that bares watching. Given the preponderance of evidence between extended guidance and an already modestly perturbed polar vortex, confidence is above average that there will not be a strong vortex from the middle portion of November and into the holiday season, although there will likely be periods of recovery. It will ultimately persevere. This outcome is also supported by the analog composite, which in hindsight accurately predicted one of the warmest months of October on record throughout the northeast. Note that while I incorporate it into my conceptualization of how the season will evolve, its not the center piece of my outlook. I think it has value like any other tool does, but it was likely misused several years back, when it first came out and its value was probably overstated.

I'm sure, and I agree its tough today. Its a lot different than even 15 years ago.

I agree to an extent, but I really don't think he is a fan of winter.....you can tell. He doesn't have the sick smirk when a big one is on the way like Harv and some others do. You know a weenie when you see one and he doesn't pass the smell test. That said, I am sure he wouldn't be such a dork in person at a bar.

TBH, I would probably do the same thing if I were in his shoes...you just have to when you're in a highly visible position like that. Just sucks society is like that today.

I have zero faith in humanity, but every now and then people don't suck.

I was trying to explain to him on Twitter like a month or two ago that most weather fans were rooting for a hurricane strike in the northeast...he offered the most naïve, generically politically correct response as only he can...."well, they must not own anything". I was just shaking my head and said "I think you'd be surprised", and just left it at that. He didn't replay.

Yea, that sounds about right....there should be a mild stretch in November before we get an early jump on things.

I don't even begin to look at anything but climate models until just about December....unless its imminently clear that I need to.

There are a lot of idiots on Twitter.

Storm was largely a bust for Boston...it hugged too closely.

Its Indian Summer and Columbus Day AFAIC.

Man, I miss Harv already.....this next wave of guys like Fisher is so boring.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had a warm bias...the guy hates winter. I hope that isn't what our generation of mets is like in this cancel culture we are in.....makes we want to violently vomit.