40/70 Benchmark

I'm confident that this winter will turn the corner and won't end up as vile as it looks right now. I feel like I just messed the timing up. Not sure if you saw the parallels to Dec-Jan 2001-2002 that I made earlier, but its been a decent analog, thus far. I actually doubled up on that year in my forecast composite, but again...my timing was clearly off. Difference between this year and that year is that while we have had a +EPO overall, which was expected, there hasn't been a death star vortex camped out over AK like there was in 2001-2002. I'm pretty confident this will flip. I could see a latter January-Feb driven by PNA/poleward Aleutian ridging, with maybe a more el ninoish/blocky finish in March.

Yes. 1957, 1976, 1986, 2002 and 2014. I like 57, 86 and 2002 best because I don't think it will be weak. It should be a reasonably strong el nino that is not east-based and doesn't suck.

I am really excited for next year. I can't wait to start that thread on a cold, windy, and dry day in mid March.

Speed of the server isn't one of the qualities that I prioritize with respect to data....I get the impulsive D-drip from this site. I just want quality data with good graphics to go back and parse through when making the forecasts.

Tell it to try harder.

That was ++NAO and +PDO Dec.....but yea, it stunk. Just not a great match...

Too easy....I'll let a novice do the honors...

Weak events focus on SNE, and stronger mid atl....but good for all.

1963-1964 is borderline with respect to meeting the criteria....

For those feeling down and out about recent winters, take solace in warm ENSO following 3+ consecutive years of cold ENSO:

I could do without the -90 experience.

As cool as it would be to live there an experience that, I don't think I would be as into the seasonal forecasting aspect. Its such a rush to chase the unique set of seasonal variables that marry and lend themselves to a great winter here...its what drives the ambition to try to sort the pieces to the puzzle out correctly. I feel like living in a LE snowbelt would be like playing against the atmosphere in an ice hockey game in which the atmosphere has its goalie pulled all year.

They have a bit more elevation there, no?

I am the supervisor....and clinician, and biller. And yes, I talked to myself about it....A LOT, after that Xmas storm went down the drain.

I'm not saying the demise is imminent or anything, but pop an Aleutian ridge in Feb and then maybe get some ENSO related help in March. I'm usually not big on the "la nina will weaken and save the winter" mantra, but it may help a bit this year.

I have a client from East Aurora...he was complaining about shoveling during xmas at home. But thankfully, he "only had 3 feet", as comparted to his sister in a north town. I wanted to strangle him-

1955-1956 didn't technically die off until the next fall. ' 1955 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.7 -1.5 1956 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5

It doesn't have to "die"....the atmospheric changes lead the SST, anyway, to a large extent.

1955-1956...though that January looked quite a bit different.

@BuffaloWeatherI wanna chase that shit one day when my kids are a bit older....we gotta link up.

I would imagine milder lake SSTs lead to greater instability, which is how you get like 12 consecutive hours of T Snow.

Yea, a lot of the crap milder winters end up good for you because the lakes remain relatively warm and unfrozen later...whenever we do get a rouge cold shot...BANG.

I still say this is the big analog moving forward...