40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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He's nailed the last couple years.
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Well, this event is going to fade somewhat faster than average and I do think it's rather stagnant, as described above.
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Its human nature, though...people display more emotion and have more energy when they witness an appealing result. You don't see the crowd go wild when the visiting team hits a homerun...doesn't mean they are immersed in psychosis or in any sort of denial.
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He and raindance are the only two that I take seriously TBH.
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Not to detract from your overall point, but the SAI is a rather poor example...at least today. Many have reached the point that I have and don't make a huge deal out of it either way.
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Larry Cosgrove.
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I will admit, I feel like ENSO dying early is a fraudulent, weenie rationale bc there is a lag, anyway. It can help with PNA late, I guess.
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Well, mosquito earlier this week in the kitchen, now I just had to fend off a bee forming coming on from the deck. Fisher must love this.
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DT is going big...on the Cosgrove train.
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Well, that should get 'er done.
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I agree. I thought it was soft if he was pissed.
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Not done until late next week.
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Strange that he unfollowed the Yanks on Twitter...maybe aggressive posturing in negotiations? I know none of the players were thrilled with him getting booed in the PS after hitting 62HRs.
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This is where the eastward trend in la nina over the past month comes into play....it helps IMO. I don't expect that to change BC those trades are dying, and the western subsurface is warming. Although the eastern zones have certainly peaked...
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I am beginning to grow kind of conflicted because I am not buying all of what my sensible analogs are selling, despite how well they have worked this fall. I think I am going to modify them at certain points of the season by stressing analogs that I feel as though the sensible result will most closely resemble.
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Lets get that RNA out of here faster than Judge leaving the Bronx this winter.
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Yes, great post. It will be nothing like last December...let me be clear on that.
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Depends how negative, and also how stretched the PV is and in which direction.....these are the nuances that make ostensibly comparable analogs have relatively drastically different sensible weather impacts. I am still very early on and haven't really looked at the pattern much yet, so keep that in mind.
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This isn't to say a torch...or "sell December"....not what I mean. It can still snow, but I just don't expect an icebox. I think we will need the NAO to help.
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Agree.
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I don't doubt a break early in the month, but I think the -PNA will keep the real cold in check throughout December.
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Almost as fast the hype about the intensifying la nina. I mention the SAI, but I certainly do not base my entire forecast off of it.
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Yea, I don't think December will be frigid, but it should be good enough for at least a parts of the area.
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Yea, its frustrating for me because its just kept trending warmer....my Novie composite initially looked great last week. I need the warmth centered in the N plains for November. Something tells me the change will get pushed back a decent amount, too.
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