40/70 Benchmark

That EURO deal isn't really clown range anymore....its starts at day 6. Looks as though the 50/50 is more pronounced.

Yes.

Disregard....sometimes these graphics have glitches.....it had the red as 20", instead of 12"....its corrected now. Anyway, maybe right if tonight's EURO has a clue.

It's all of e MA..but yea, se MA jack. I would let that slide.

Euro had me down to 18-19

+2" 21.5"

I'm at 21.5"

Glad I went with the EURO on that

The block is clearly driving guidance batty..we go from this to futility runs.

Seriously....but you think they would resist allowing emotions to preclude a thorough analysis the likes of which we have seen from John and Will.

I mean, we aren't disagreeing...its not a big snowmaker lol

Well, the southern end is closer to 2-3". Its a range.

Not using it for your area.

Final Call for Mess Thursday Commutes: No Real Changes Some Snowfall Accumulation Likely North; Ice Threat South Synoptic Situation: It was explained on Eastern Mass Weather last week how the final week of February would be turning more wintry due to the southward pressing of the polar vortex, which begins to encroach on the territory of the south east ridge. This battle is very apparent as a lobe of energy breaks off from the massive and seemingly semi permanent western US trough towards mid week. The lobe of energy attenuates as it is forced through the compressed flow between the PV to the north, and the SE ridge to the south on Wednesday into Thursday, as it approaches the area. The PV continues to edge to the southeast and encroach on the area as the storm system moves though the area, thus at some point during the storm, arctic air will be drawn back to the south. This will complicate the forecast. Anticipated Synoptic Evolution: Very little if any snowfall will occur across the southwestern half of Connecticut, as precipitation will begin early Wednesday evening as a mixture of sleet and rain. This is due to the track of the mid level system drawing in warmer air aloft. Any snowfall in the Mass pike region rapidly transitions to sleet by shortly after midnight with only light accumulations of snowfall, beforehand, as warmer air aloft continues to overspread the area on a southwest flow. The Thursday AM commute will be hazardous to the north and west of Boston, as sleet continues to fall to the north with perhaps a mixture of sleet and freezing rain to the west. The immediate Boston area and points southeast should be raining during the commute. However, all areas should be messy and plenty of extra time will likely be needed. Conditions should improve throughout the immediate Boston area during the early morning hours of Thursday AM, however, arctic air will begin to filter back towards the area from the northeast around the time of the morning commute. This could cause roadways to ice over again during early to mid morning, from northeast to southwest. This will especially be a hazard to the north of the Mass pike, will residual precipitation will remain into mid afternoon. Allow plenty of extra time for both the morning and evening commutes, as area roadways are still likely to ice over despite the last of the precipitation moving out to the north. The AM commute especially north and west of Boston, but it should even be slippery near the post for the afternoon drive. FINAL CALL: No changes from First Call map issued on Sunday.

"No changes". https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/final-call-for-mess-thursday-commutes.html

Well, the pattern is one thing....if the block is fleeting and then we roast, then fine....but when I refer to climo, I am implicating the mean of all years.

Climo isn't that tough for us on 3/8....its after mid months where it is more uphill.

EURO now looks pretty much exactly like my first call (think positive snow depth change map, not dumb clowns)...not sure I will change much from the First Call on Sunday.

Yea, neither did I....but the same reason I think forecasting snowfall at a seasonal level is fun, is why most don't bother....its so unpredictable. I think its fun. You just never know....and it evens out, for the most part.

Yea, forecasters need to stop rip n' reading theJMA...its not all is cracked up to be-

Its funny to ball bust and poke fun in hindsight....but at the end of the day, I expected a -PNA with some periods of strong NAO blocking....and that has worked out. I'm not embarrassed to say that I didn't expect snowfall to turn out so paltry given those background states. Win some, lose some. This is why forecasting snowfall is such a crapshoot at a seasonal level....I nailed the pattern 2/3 months, but the favorable portion of the forecast (window for snow) just didn't produce.

Well, the NAO never "forces" anything....it just acts as a block, but it never forces the pattern...that's always either the Pacific or strat.

I don't mean the whole season...just the modeled stretch ahead with the sharp gradient around my area.

This pattern is reminding me of 12/2007 a bit...